Treasury Yields Are Falling. These 3 Dividend Stocks Could Be Big Winners
A post-midterm risk-off move is pushing Treasury yields lower, and regulated utilities stand to gain twice. One pays the most income, one owns a 52-year raise streak, and one has OpenAI as a customer. Each also hides a risk.
Income investors just got the boost they have waited for all year. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.91% on November 2, down 0.37 percentage points from a month earlier. Then Democrats’ stronger-than-expected midterm showing set off what Ariana Salvatore of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS | MS Price Prediction) called “a fairly clear risk-off response,” and Treasury yields moved lower again. Utilities gain from falling yields in two ways.
Their dividends look better next to a Treasury, and their borrowing gets cheaper, which matters for businesses that are always raising debt to build power plants and transmission lines. Southern Company (NYSE:SO), Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) and Consolidated Edison (NYSE:ED) all pair regulated rate-base growth with long dividend records. That mix tends to get a higher valuation when the 10-year drops.
Southern Company: Data Center Contracts Back a Payout That Rises Every Year
Southern has a trailing dividend yield of 3.15%. Its current quarterly dividend of $0.76 works out to $3.04 a year, a forward yield of about 3.22% at the latest price of $94.39. The next payment goes out on December 7 to shareholders of record on November 16.
Dividend safety: Southern pays out about 71.8% of its trailing EPS of $4.15. The forward dividend comes to 67.6% of the low end of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from the second quarter ($4.50 to $4.60), and management expected to finish “near or at the top” of that range. Southern spends more on construction than its operations bring in, so the balance sheet does the heavy lifting. It raised $700 million of equity through its at-the-market program that quarter, cut its estimated remaining equity needs through 2030 to $1.1 billion, and targeted about 17% FFO to debt by 2029. On track record, the quarterly dividend has grown from $0.335 in 1999 to $0.76 today, with a raise every year since at least 2016. Its most recent raise was 2.7%.
Bull case: Southern’s growth comes from more demand at locked-in rates. Second-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.13 beat the $1.00 consensus, and data center usage ran 55% higher than a year earlier. Signed large-load agreements top 17 GW by the mid-2030s, including a 3.2 GW, 25-year contract with OpenAI, and the deal pipeline is still well above 75 GW. Those contracts carry minimum bills meant to cover 100% of the incremental cost to serve. The stock gained 12.65% over the past month and trades at 19 times forward earnings.
Risk: Interest costs are climbing. First-quarter interest expense reached $778 million, up from $714 million. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked above five and a quarter earlier this year, and a move back toward that level would raise financing costs and take away the bond-proxy rally.
Duke Energy: Highest Yield of the Group With a Reaffirmed Growth Path
Duke has a trailing yield of 3.32%. Its quarterly dividend of $1.085 works out to $4.34 a year, a forward yield of about 3.35% at $129.40. Among these three names, it offers the most income per dollar. Its next payout arrives on December 16.
Dividend safety: Duke pays out about 65.1% of trailing EPS of $6.54. The forward dividend matches 66.3% of the bottom of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80, reaffirmed in the second quarter. At the end of the second quarter, the company reported $201.1 billion in total assets against $54.75 billion in shareholders’ equity. Management also targeted 14.5% FFO to debt this year and 15% over the longer term, which it said leaves room above downgrade thresholds. Duke had priced $600 million through its ATM program by then and planned no large block offering. On track record, CFO Brian Savoy said the July raise marked “over 20 years of consecutive annual dividend increases,” and the payout history shows the quarterly rate rising from $0.855 in early 2017 to $1.085.
Bull case: Second-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.43 beat the $1.31 consensus, Duke’s 5th straight beat. As of the second quarter, Duke had signed 7.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers and expected to convert the remaining 15.4 gigawatt pipeline by the first half of 2027. It saw possible upside of $5 billion to $10 billion to the five-year capital plan. It projected 5% to 7% annual EPS growth through 2030 and expected to land in the top half of that range starting in 2028. At 18 times forward earnings, Duke has the group’s lowest forward multiple, after a 13.67% gain over the past month.
Risk: The North Carolina rate cases are the near-term test. The settlement in the Duke Energy Carolinas case includes a 9.8% ROE and a 53% equity capital structure, and Duke expected orders on both North Carolina cases by mid-November. A ruling below those terms would reduce the returns that fund future dividend growth.
Consolidated Edison: Dividend King Status Built on 52 Years of Raises
Con Edison has a trailing yield of 2.93%. Its quarterly dividend of $0.8875 works out to $3.55 a year, a forward yield of about 2.96% at $120. Of the three, Con Edison pays the lowest yield and has the longest record of increases.
Dividend safety: Con Edison pays out about 57.2% of trailing EPS of $6.07, the most margin in this group. The forward dividend matches 59.2% of the low end of confirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00 to $6.20. Revenue decoupling and weather normalization at its New York utilities keep earnings steady through mild summers and warm winters. Management has also said the company has “no long-term parent company debt,” choosing to borrow at the operating utilities instead. Its filings describe this year as the 52nd consecutive year of dividend increases, with a 4.4% annualized increase in 2026. That makes Con Edison a Dividend King, the rare 50-plus-year club we ranked by valuation in a free report on ten Dividend Kings worth owning now. The payout history supports it, with the quarterly rate rising from $0.535 in 1999 to $0.8875 today.
Bull case: New York City electrification is driving rate-base growth. Capital spending, per second-quarter filings, climbs from $6.6 billion this year to $8.6 billion by 2030, and the regulated investment base is projected to grow at an 8.8% compound annual rate, from $46.4 billion to about $67.2 billion. Second-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.83 beat the $0.77 consensus on revenue growth of 13.2%. Its beta of 0.223 is the lowest of the three, and the shares are up 23.81% year to date. That makes Con Edison the market’s clearest bond proxy.
Risk: Credit pressure is building. Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) has a negative outlook on both Con Edison and its main utility, CECONY. At the same time, the company plans to raise $1.1 billion of common equity and $3.2 billion of long-term debt this year. A downgrade would raise borrowing costs just as spending ramps up.
Three Regulated Payouts Built for a Falling-Rate Market
Southern Company, Duke Energy, and Consolidated Edison are large regulated electric utilities with strong or confirmed 2026 guidance, multiyear capital plans that grow the rate base, and long dividend records. Duke has the highest yield, Con Edison has the longest run and the most payout margin, and Southern has the most data center growth under signed. All three have already risen as the 10-year has fallen, so the next things to track are rate-case rulings and where Treasury yields go from here.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
