BlackBerry Is Up 136% This Year: Take Profits, or Buy More?

Few software turnarounds have paid off in 2026 like BlackBerry (NYSE:BB), as its QNX embedded operating system keeps winning over automakers. BlackBerry stock is at $8.94, up 2% in afternoon trading; that gain adds to a 136% climb year to date (YTD).

QNX now carries most of the BlackBerry story. The real-time software runs safety-critical systems in cars, robots and industrial machines, alongside a Secure Communications unit that serves governments. That mix sets the company apart from automotive software peers that have struggled this year. Even so, the long-term chart tempers the excitement, since BlackBerry stock still trades below its level of five years ago.

How QNX Fueled BlackBerry’s Rally This Year

BlackBerry’s biggest catalyst arrived on September 24, when the company reported Q2 FY2027 results that beat expectations on both lines. The company’s revenue rose 26% year over year (YoY) to $163.3 million, ahead of the $145.5 million consensus, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.07 exceeded the $0.04 estimate. Record QNX revenue reached $80.3 million, up 27%, with an 87% adjusted gross margin. Management also raised its FY2027 revenue outlook to $616 million to $636 million.

Licensing revenue at BlackBerry hit $22.1 million, lifted mostly by a new licensing arrangement that management said shouldn’t be viewed as a new quarterly run rate. Setting that one-time boost aside, QNX still drove the quarter, which included the largest design win in QNX history. Coretura, the commercial truck joint venture of Volvo Group and Daimler Truck, picked the QNX-based Alloy Kore platform, adding more than $100 million to the royalty backlog.

A design win means a customer has chosen a supplier’s technology for a future vehicle program. Royalties follow only as those vehicles ship, often years later, which is why BlackBerry management noted the Coretura deal won’t materially change revenue this fiscal year.

A smart front-camera platform from BlackBerry’s QNX unit and Valeo had secured design wins with multiple automakers in China as of November 8, with production expected this year. On October 27, BlackBerry added longtime legal adviser David Chaikof to a board that now has nine directors, eight of them independent.

Mobileye and Cerence Highlight How Unusual BlackBerry’s Run Is

Automotive software rivals of BlackBerry have moved the opposite way. Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY | MBLY Price Prediction) stock is down 44% YTD to $5.87. Camera-based EyeQ chips and driver-assistance software form the core of Mobileye’s business, and the company is also developing robotaxi systems. Sales at Mobileye rise and fall with chip shipments and per-vehicle pricing, while BlackBerry’s QNX licenses foundational software that often sits underneath those same driver-assist features.

Cerence (NASDAQ:CRNC) stock is down 20% YTD to $8.56. Voice assistants and conversational artificial intelligence (AI) for car cabins drive Cerence’s sales, and the company is moving toward recurring connected services, though both businesses lean heavily on vehicle production, while BlackBerry sits deeper in the software stack and makes government revenue through Secure Communications.

Bull and Bear Cases for BlackBerry After Its Surge

The bulls argue QNX is gaining speed. CEO John J. Giamatteo stated on the September 24 call, “QNX is definitely not slowing down. If anything, it’s accelerating. But from quarter to quarter, that’s not going to be linear.” Management added that BlackBerry’s previously reported $950 million royalty backlog is starting to convert as programs reach production.

A softer near-term setup has bears concerned. BlackBerry guided Q3 FY2027 revenue to $143 million to $154 million and cut its Secure Communications outlook, citing uncertain government deal timing and trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. In that unit, the dollar-based net retention rate slid to 91% from 93%, a sign some existing customers are spending less.

Valuation adds another layer of risk, since this year’s surge may already price in much of the QNX growth story at BlackBerry. History adds caution, too, because the company has posted big rallies before that later faded, and design wins can take years to show up as meaningful royalties.

Checkpoints That Could Settle BlackBerry’s Profit-Taking Debate

BlackBerry’s next earnings report is the first test, with the company guiding Q3 adjusted EPS to four to five cents. Whether QNX royalty revenue keeps climbing as backlog converts into production programs is the next question for BlackBerry. Watch for any update on the Valeo platform entering production in China, which would turn those design wins into shipped volume.

The case for taking profits rests on BlackBerry’s valuation. It also rests on a history of fading rallies, while the case for adding rests on record QNX results and a growing royalty pipeline. How the QNX royalty ramp plays out could go a long way toward deciding that debate.

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