Nebius Tumbles 14% on Soft Guidance and Bigger Spending Plans; CoreWeave Sinks 10%, IREN Drops 7%
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A softer outlook and far bigger spending plans are overshadowing a strong quarter at Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction). Nebius stock is at $133.67 in morning trading, down 14%. That decline follows a 15% gain on November 11, and it’s pulling other neocloud (AI cloud) stocks lower.
On November 12, Nebius reported Q3 2026 revenue of $980.8 million, exceeding the LSEG consensus estimate of $907.5 million. Sales at Nebius rose 571% from a year earlier, while the company’s loss came to 13 cents per share. What rattled the market was the outlook, which pairs a softer 2026 with a heavier investment plan.
Nebius Guidance Points to a Softer 2026 and a Bigger Build-Out
In his shareholder letter, CEO Arkady Volozh stated Nebius expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range. Capital spending plans moved the other way, with Nebius raising its 2026 forecast to $27 billion from its prior guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion. For 2027, Nebius expects capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion, well above the FactSet estimate of $28.77 billion.
Nebius set an initial 2027 revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion. The company called it “a conservative approach to the pace of our build-out.” That mix of heavier spending and a measured revenue growth has the market questioning how much these companies are spending to build AI capacity.
Pressure on the group started building on November 11 after reports that the board of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang. As an investor in and backstop for neocloud projects, NVIDIA held Nebius shares worth about $329 million at the end of June, according to a regulatory filing.
CoreWeave and IREN Follow Nebius Lower
Shares of CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) are giving back much of their November 11 rally. CoreWeave stock is at $54.57, down 10%. The surge came after CoreWeave reported Q3 2026 revenue of $3.66 billion on November 10, up 168% from a year earlier, and lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to $13 billion to $13.3 billion with a backlog of approximately $132.5 billion.
Bloomberg reported late on November 11 that CoreWeave plans to raise at least $4 billion through an investment-grade loan. The NVIDIA reports weighed on CoreWeave because the chipmaker is its main chip supplier and a major investor, and the selloff deepened after the Nebius results, yet that decline remains smaller than the drop at Nebius, even though the CoreWeave rally on November 11 was the bigger of the two.
Falling less than both, IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) is tracking the group lower. IREN stock is at $19.41, down 7%. On November 5, the AI cloud operator disclosed that more than $4 billion of operating annual recurring revenue is now targeted for January, with a possible extension to the end of February.
Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) is also trading lower, and each neocloud stock fell after the Nebius report. Like CoreWeave and IREN, Applied Digital had rallied on November 11 before reversing.
How Nebius Differs From CoreWeave and IREN
Nebius runs a full-stack AI cloud, owning and operating data centers across Europe, the U.S. and the Middle East and selling compute and software on top. The company’s newer asset-light model lets partners finance and build facilities while Nebius supplies the platform and the customer demand.
CoreWeave operates a larger graphics processing unit (GPU) cloud with heavier leverage, funding much of its build-out through debt tied to specific customer contracts. IREN controls its own land, power and data centers and is shifting from digital-asset mining to AI cloud work, which lets it slow construction when financing tightens. Applied Digital acts more like a landlord, signing long-duration leases with hyperscale customers instead of renting out GPUs.
What Nebius Needs to Prove on Spending
Nebius’s next test is whether its 2027 revenue growth can justify a capital budget that keeps getting bigger. Bullish voices can point to the August 12 earnings call, where Volozh said Nebius “could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to.” For the bears, the risks include heavier spending, dependence on NVIDIA and the dozens of ballot measures restricting data center development that U.S. voters backed in recent elections.
CoreWeave and IREN face a similar question about how fast spending turns into profit, and NVIDIA’s leadership turmoil adds volatility across the neocloud group. The debate over Nebius’s spending is worth tracking as it settles.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk. His work has appeared in 24/7 Wall St., The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, MarketScreener, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, and others. With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
