XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is trading around $1.14, which is close enough to the $1 support level. The coin already touched $1.07 earlier this month, its lowest since November 2024, before clawing back a few cents. That leaves the $1 mark barely 12% below where XRP trades now, close enough that a drop there is worth taking seriously.
That puts a real question in front of anyone holding the crypto: could XRP break below $1? We put it to Claude AI and asked what would have to break for the XRP price to drop the rest of the way. The interesting part of its answer is that most people following XRP right now are watching the wrong signals.
How XRP Got Within Reach of $1
The slide that brought XRP this close to $1 says a lot about who’s driving it. Most of the selling has come from the futures market rather than people offloading actual coins, which means traders using leverage have been pushing the price down faster than everyday buyers can soak it up. That’s why the drop has been quick and sharp rather than a slow drift.
The bigger problem now is the line XRP just lost. It recently slipped below its 200-day moving average near $1.17—the level traders use to gauge the long-term trend. Holding above it had signalled that the broader uptrend was still intact, so losing it means that uptrend has now broken down. That break is what made a fall to $1 look possible instead of far-fetched, and it’s the situation we handed Claude.
Why the Things Holding XRP Up Won’t Catch a Fall
A few things are supposed to be keeping XRP above $1: the support around $1.10 to $1.13, the steady money flowing into XRP ETFs, record numbers of whales stacking coins, and the CLARITY Act working its way through the Senate. All of it looks like a solid floor holding the price up.
According to Claude, that’s the wrong way to read them. None of those things actually hold the price up, because they only react once XRP has already moved. If the XRP price falls, ETF flows would turn negative and whales would start sending coins back to exchanges afterward. By the time things get ugly, the fall has already happened. So, watching the on-chain numbers for an early warning gets it backwards, since they follow the price rather than lead it.
On top of being slow, two of those reasons are weaker than they look. The record whale numbers are an easy one to misread, since one big holder splitting coins across new wallets pushes the count up without a single new buyer showing up.
The CLARITY Act is the bigger trap, because it isn’t protecting the price, it’s the reason a chunk of people bought in the first place. They’re betting the bill passes and sends XRP higher, so if it stalls, those same buyers turn into sellers and push the price down instead.
What Would Take XRP to $1?
The drop to $1 would start with Bitcoin, not XRP. XRP moves with the broader market, and a fall this big almost always begins somewhere else first. Bitcoin is already near $64,000 and down about 16% over the past month, so if it keeps sliding, XRP gets dragged along with it—and nothing else on the list matters until that happens.
Moreover, as long as the futures-driven selling keeps overpowering a weak spot market, every test of the $1.10 to $1.13 range eats away at the buy orders stacked there. The moment that counts is a daily close below $1.10. Claude flagged that once XRP closes below $1.10, there may be very few buyers between there and $1 to slow the fall.
By that stage the slow signals will finally turn, but only to confirm what already happened. Money would start leaving the ETFs, whales would move coins onto exchanges to sell, and the talks about the CLARITY Act would fade, all of it after the price has already dropped. That leaves two things worth actually watching if you want a read on where XRP is headed: what Bitcoin does, and whether XRP can keep closing each day above $1.10.
Could XRP Really Fall to $1?
XRP is more likely to bounce here than collapse. It’s oversold, buyers are still defending the floor, but ETF money is still flowing in, which points to a short-term recovery. But with XRP now below its 200-day line and the broader market still weak, the next few weeks lean lower unless Bitcoin steadies itself.
So a drop to $1 is a genuine risk, just not the most likely outcome today. We asked Claude for an exact percentage, it didn’t give a definite answer, saying any number would just be a guess. What’s worth holding onto is that a drop, if it comes, would be quick, and the data most people rely on won’t warn them before it does. So, what’s crucial now is Bitcoin’s price action, and whether XRP can hold above $1.10.
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