XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) was holding $1.28—the level buyers had defended on every dip since February—barely a week ago. But it’s now at $1.09 and falling steeply, with $1.11 already broken and the $1 floor only 9 cents below.
What is interesting though is that XRP whales have spent 2026 accumulating, not selling. The number of wallets holding 10,000+ XRP hit a record 332,230 in May, and the biggest holders now control 68.5% of supply, which is the highest concentration since 2018. So even as the price slides, the largest holders have not flinched.
So will the price crash below $1, or do the whales win?
How XRP Just Fell From $1.28 to $1.09 in a Week
A week ago, the $1.28 support was the level buyers showed up to defend on every dip. Then $1.20 broke on heavy volume earlier this week, the $1.14 price mark gave way this morning, and $1.11—the February defense level—broke shortly after.
XRP now trades below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which is a full bearish outlook that confirms sellers are in control across every timeframe. The 14-day RSI has slipped to around 29, deep in oversold territory, though oversold can stay oversold when the wider market keeps falling.
The last time XRP traded under $1 was January 2024, before the SEC settlement and the 238% rally that took the token to $2.08 by year-end. A break below $1 now would give back the entire post-settlement bull run.
XRP’s market cap has slipped to $66 billion, dropping XRP to the number six spot as Solana briefly overtook it. With $1.09 already broken, the next question is whether $1 holds.
What Could Push XRP Below $1
The setup pushing XRP down right now is wprse than the February Iran-war crash, when buyers stepped in at the $1.11 level that has now broken. Bitcoin has broken below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024 after Strategy broke its years-long never-sell rule and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just ended their longest outflow streak ever, with 13 trading days of withdrawals through June 3.
Ethereum is also down 9.8% in 24 hours, marking the worst single-day move of any major coin, and over $1 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated across the market in the same window.
Below $1.09, there is not much support on the XRP chart. The next layer of support runs around $1.05, and after that comes $1.00, which is where buyers tend to show up just because it is a round number. But sentiment alone rarely holds a level when the rest of crypto keeps selling. Some chart analysts have flagged that XRP could fall another 40% from here if the risk-off continues, which would put the token around $0.70.
Even XRP’s institutional bid wobbled this week. Spot XRP ETFs posted their first outflow day in June on Tuesday, with $5.34 million walking out across Bitwise and Grayscale’s funds. That broke a steady run from May, when XRP funds drew $131.94 million in inflows without a single outflow day. So, the institutional bid that has supported XRP all year is now feeling the wider selloff too.
Why XRP Whales Are Buying Like $1 Holds
While the XRP price chart bleeds, on-chain data says the opposite. The number of XRP wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens hit a record 332,230 in May, and that cohort has kept growing through every drawdown of 2026.
Wallets holding 1 million or more XRP have added a net 42 new addresses since January, the first increase in millionaire wallets since September 2025, and they accumulated 1.2 billion XRP in Q1 2026 alone, which is the highest quarterly figure since 2023.
The largest holders are also tightening their grip on supply. Whales holding 10 million or more XRP now control 45.83 billion tokens, or 68.5% of circulating supply, which is the highest concentration since May 2018. And XRP whale outflow dominance on Binance recently hit 91.4%, the highest reading since 2024.
The last time it printed at that level, in October 2024, XRP rallied from $0.50 to over $3 in the months that followed. Exchange outflows alone don’t confirm whales are buying, but they do show that the largest holders are moving coins off Binance at the same time retail is stepping back.
There’s also a long-cycle signal on the chart that doesn’t show up often. XRP’s monthly RSI has dropped into the oversold reset zone for only the fourth time in 13 years, joining 2017 before the 2018 expansion, 2020 before the reset, and the 2022 bear-market low. Each of those prior resets preceded a major reversal in XRP’s direction, and the fourth instance is forming now at $1.09.
The CLARITY Act Vote Decides Whether XRP Defends $1
The CLARITY Act floor vote could decide XRP’s outlook for the rest of the year. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and was formally placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. That puts the bill 5 of 9 steps from becoming law, with the full Senate floor vote as the next major step.
The August recess is the hard deadline. Galaxy Research currently gives the bill 75% odds of passing in 2026, and Galaxy Digital backed that view with a $10 million institutional trade on 2026 passage through Arca’s platform. Senator Cynthia Lummis posted on June 2 that the U.S. is closer to a functioning digital asset market structure than it has ever been, and that now is “not the time to flinch.” The realistic signing date, per Galaxy Research, is the week of August 3.
If the bill clears and the macro stabilizes, Standard Chartered forecasts that XRP will hit $2.80, with the bullish analyst range extending toward $8. But if the CLARITY Act stalls before recess and slips to 2030 or beyond, prices could drop closer to $0.53. That is roughly 30 to 40% downside against 2.5x to 7x upside, which is why XRP holders are watching this vote so closely.
So, Will XRP Drop Below $1?
XRP could probably test $1 before this leg of the selloff is over, and whether the level breaks depends on two things. The first is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $60,000 from here. If BTC slides into the $55,000 zone, XRP would follow down regardless of its own fundamentals.
The second is whether the CLARITY Act gets a Senate floor vote before the August recess. If the vote happens and the bill clears, the asymmetric upside is too attractive for institutional money to skip, and XRP rallies off whatever low it makes.
The next four weeks settle which scenario plays out. On June 10, the May CPI release sets the macro tone. On June 16-17, the FOMC would meets and give the first policy read from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. And the CLARITY Act floor vote is the catalyst that decides whether XRP holders should be buying the $1 retest or bracing for a break.
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