Ripple’s native cryptocurrency, XRP (CRYPTO:XRP), started the year trading around $1.85 and hovers near $1.07 today after dropping over 42% in seven months. The XRP price would have to climb 73% in the next five months just to finish 2026 where it started.
That is well short of the $2 and $3 targets that many forecasted the coin would hit heading into the year, and it is still a big move to ask for in five months. So what would have to happen for the XRP price to get back to break-even by December?
Why XRP Cannot Recover Until the Crypto Market Does
Ripple has given XRP holders plenty to be excited about this year. The company bought its way deeper into institutional finance, the XRP Ledger picked up new upgrades, and the spot ETFs brought in fresh money. But none of it has moved the XRP price, because XRP and the rest of the crypto market have been under bearish pressure.
The pressure started on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz closed soon after, cutting off the route for about a fifth of the world’s oil trade, and gasoline went above $4 a gallon.
Then U.S. inflation climbed from 2.4% in February to 4.1% by June. Rate cuts were the fuel behind crypto’s 2025 rally, and the Fed under Kevin Warsh has since gone from cutting rates to penciling in a hike before the end of the year. So the money that would have gone into crypto has gone into cash and AI stocks instead.
Oil prices have already started falling, and Trump said on August 3 that he expects talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That would put oil supply back on the market and let inflation cool, which would give the Fed room to cut rates again instead of raising them, and lower rates make crypto far more attractive to investors.
Market sentiment would improve from there, and Bitcoin could start rallying again. When Bitcoin rallies, it pulls the rest of the crypto market up with it, and XRP would ride that wave higher.
The CLARITY Act Is the Catalyst XRP Is Still Waiting On
The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, settling years of legal doubt about what XRP is. However, regulators can withdraw an interpretation whenever they choose, and the next administration could do exactly that. The CLARITY Act would put the same classification into federal law and hand oversight to the CFTC, which is the permanence banks need before they build anything on XRP.
Wall Street has built its XRP numbers on this getting settled. JPMorgan backed the bill publicly on July 1, describing clearer rules as removing one of the biggest obstacles to institutional participation in crypto, and the bank’s own forecast has spot XRP ETFs pulling in $4 billion to $8.4 billion in their first year once that clarity arrives. Standard Chartered built a price roadmap on the same inflow range and forecast XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028.
The bill has been on the Senate calendar since June 1 without reaching the floor. Today is the last day leadership can file a cloture motion—the step that clears the way for a floor vote—and still get the vote before Friday. But no motion has been filed on the bill.
Senators leave for recess on August 10 and return on September 14 to a calendar already crowded with funding fights. Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act a 14% chance of becoming law in 2026, down from above 80% in February.
XRP ETF Inflows Have to Come Back
XRP ETFs pulled in $666.61 million in their first month after launching in November, and another $499.91 million in December. Those two months alone account for 77% of all the money the funds have taken in across nine months of trading.
However, the buying has faded for most of 2026. The strongest month this year was May, when investors put in $131.94 million while the CLARITY Act was moving through committee, and by the end of July inflows had dropped to $27.29 million. Investors have added $1.51 billion to the funds since launch, but those holdings are worth just under $1 billion today, because XRP has lost so much of its value since that money went in.
Standard Chartered expected those funds to take in $4 billion to $8 billion in their first year of trading, and the bank built its XRP price forecasts on that money arriving. But nine months in, the funds have gathered only $1.51 billion, which is far below expectations.
The funds currently hold 992.5 million XRP that nobody can sell while investors keep their shares. For the XRP price to rally back to the level it was at the start of the year, monthly ETF inflows have to reach $300 million, as that is what signals serious institutional commitment. Buying at that pace would lock away hundreds of millions of dollars of XRP every month, which is the steady pressure that pushes a price higher.
Will XRP Recover in 2026?
As things stand, the XRP price has a slim chance of getting back to $1.85. The three factors we mentioned would have to fall into place in five months for XRP to get back on its feet and target higher levels.
That said, if the CLARITY Act clears the Senate in September and the Fed starts cutting rates, XRP could climb to somewhere between $1.20 and $1.50 by December, or even higher if the crypto bill sparks a market-wide rally.
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