Solana Is Up 40% in a Month and XRP 39%. Which Rally Has More Behind It?
Solana and XRP both surged about 40% in a month, but one rally carries a Senate vote that Polymarket prices at just 18% odds of success. The coin you pick before September 15 and a looming Fed decision could make…
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The Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) price trades at $105.7 as of September 7, 2026, up 40.53% since August 7. The XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) price trades at $1.41, up 38.87% over the same month.
The two gains are almost the same size, but what’s behind each one isn’t. One coin gained slightly more over the month and has lost less this year. The other has a vote on the calendar that could go either way. Neither has climbed out of its downtrend, and both are still down close to half over the past year. So which rally has more behind it?
Solana Rose Because the Whole Market Did
The Solana price climbed from $73.63 on August 7 to $105.7 on September 7, 2026, but it’s still down 16.86% since January 1 and 48.31% over the past year. A good month doesn’t undo a bad year, and this one lifted Solana off a low base, not back to where it started the year.
Nothing Solana-specific caused the climb. The whole market rose over the same month, helped by interest rates that are lower than a year ago. The Fed’s upper bound is 3.75% now against 4.5% on September 7, 2025. Solana moved further than Bitcoin did because it’s a smaller coin and the same money moves it more, and it does the same on the way down.
XRP Has the Same Rally and a Senate Vote to Come
The XRP price climbed from $1.02 on August 7 to $1.41 on September 7, almost the same gain as Solana’s. But XRP is down 22.95% since January 1 and 49.57% over the past year, so it has further to climb than Solana does to get back to where 2026 started. It also has more sellers waiting above it, because more of its holders bought at higher prices.
However, XRP has one thing on the calendar that Solana doesn’t. The Senate votes on September 15 on whether to take up the CLARITY Act, the bill that would write XRP’s status as a commodity into federal law. Polymarket prices the bill being signed in 2026 at about 18%, down from 90% in February. If it fails, XRP loses its one edge over the rest of the top 10.
Bitcoin Drove Both Rallies and a Rate Hike Could End Them
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) rose 23.15% over the same month, from August 7 to September 7, 2026, and Solana and XRP rose 40% and 39%. When Bitcoin moves, they move further in the same direction. So most of what’s behind each rally is Bitcoin’s rally, and once you take that away, not much is left that’s about Solana or XRP specifically.
So the Fed decision on September 16, the day after the Senate vote, is the test both rallies share. The upper bound has been 3.75% since December 2025, but Polymarket traders price at least one rate hike in 2026 at 70.5% as of September 7, and a September hike at 60% to 65%. Strong job gains on September 4, 2026 lifted those odds, and a quarter-point hike would take the upper bound to 4%.
A hike would push bond yields higher, and when a government bond pays close to 5%, some savers move money out of coins that pay nothing. Solana and XRP both usually fall further than Bitcoin when that happens.
Why Solana Has More Behind It
Solana has more behind it. It gained slightly more over the month, it has lost less this year, and its rally doesn’t depend on one vote going its way.
The CLARITY Act would help all of crypto by settling which coins count as commodities, and Solana would gain from that too. But XRP is the coin the SEC fought over for five years, and the bill would settle its status as a commodity for good, so XRP has far more riding on September 15.
Polymarket has the bill at 18%, and if the vote fails, XRP could give back whatever part of its climb came from the bill. So heading into the Senate vote and the Fed decision, we’d rather own Solana, and would only pick XRP if the Senate finds the sixty votes for cloture.
For Solana, a daily close below $95 would break the August rally. For XRP, a failed cloture vote or a daily close below $1.35, the bottom of its range since August 27, would do the same. A rate hike on the 16th would hurt both, and the coin that rose further could fall further.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
