We Asked Grok if Bitcoin Can Still Reach $100,000 Without the CLARITY Act

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) and Circle (NYSE:CRCL) both fell sharply after the September 15 Senate cloture vote failed to advance the CLARITY Act, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) barely moved. 

The split was striking as crypto-related stocks reacted immediately to the setback in Washington, while Bitcoin showed little interest in it, putting the focus back on the factors that can move BTC itself. 

We asked Grok whether Bitcoin can still reach $100,000 without the CLARITY Act and what would need to happen for BTC to get there before the end of 2026.

Grok’s Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2026

Bitcoin trades at $76,389.34 on September 17, and Grok says yes, a run to $100,000 is possible, describing it as “a reachable but low-probability outcome” that would require “a ~31% rally” from current levels. Bitcoin has failed at $80,000 three times over the past month, making that level the first hurdle the coin must clear before the six-figure conversation becomes realistic.

Grok calls the target reachable partly because Bitcoin already made a comparable move in August, when the coin ran 18.08% in roughly four weeks on some of the year’s biggest daily volumes during its tests of $80,000. A similarly sized burst from current levels could put Bitcoin into the mid-eighties by year-end, which is the scenario the model is leaning on when it treats $100,000 as within reach rather than out of the question entirely.

That target still sits well above where Bitcoin trades today, though, and the gap says something about how far the coin has fallen from its highs. A year ago Bitcoin traded near $116,484, and it closed out 2025 around $87,500, both levels above where it sits now. 

The coin has also traded below its 50-week moving average, the running average of a year’s worth of weekly closes, since June, and Grok treats a weekly close back above that line as the technical gate that needs to open before $100,000 becomes a live conversation again.

What Grok Says Bitcoin Needs to Reach $100,000

Grok’s Bitcoin outlook hinges on the gap between where BTC is trading and the $100,000 target before the end of 2026. Grok points to the current market backdrop, including weaker ETF flows, the latest Federal Reserve rate decision, and the failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, as factors that leave Bitcoin without the stronger demand and macroeconomic conditions needed for a sustained move toward six figures.

For Bitcoin to reach $100,000 before year-end, Grok’s analysis calls for a stronger combination of buying demand and macroeconomic conditions than the market has seen recently. The model therefore treats the $100,000 target as dependent on a meaningful improvement in demand rather than the CLARITY Act alone, especially since Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction to the Senate setback.

What Gets Bitcoin to $100,000 This Year

The failed CLARITY Act vote puts more attention on the factors that directly affect Bitcoin’s price, particularly ETF demand and Federal Reserve policy, because Bitcoin did not react as sharply as several major cryptocurrencies when the Senate cloture vote failed. 

The bill had spent two years moving through negotiations and amendments before the vote, but the limited move in BTC that followed leaves the path to $100,000 more dependent on whether fresh demand enters the market and whether financial conditions allow that demand to push prices higher. That demand has been closely tied to the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in early 2024 and have become a major channel for institutional exposure to BTC. 

The funds recorded net outflows on consecutive days heading into mid-September, putting renewed inflows at the center of Bitcoin’s next move because sustained ETF buying would give BTC more support as it tries to push through the mid-$80,000s. If those outflows continue instead, Bitcoin would have a harder time building the demand needed to reach $100,000 before the end of the year.

ETF flows, however, are only part of the backdrop Grok is assessing, with Federal Reserve policy also affecting how much risk investors are willing to take. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, marking its first rate hike since 2023, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.00% on September 15, its highest level since 2007. 

Higher rates and yields leave Bitcoin in a tougher financial environment, which is why Grok also identifies a weekly close above the 50-week moving average as a technical requirement for a move toward $100,000, tying the target to both stronger demand and a break above a key long-term price indicator.

Can Bitcoin Reach $100,000 Before Year End?

Grok assigns Bitcoin a low probability of reaching $100,000 this year because four conditions behind the target have not been met. ETF flows have turned negative on consecutive days, Bitcoin has remained below its 50-week moving average since June, the Fed has resumed raising rates and signaled more hikes could follow, and the broader market has yet to produce the demand needed to push BTC through its major resistance levels. 

For the six-figure target to come back into view, Grok wants to see sustained multi-billion-dollar ETF inflows, a weekly close above the 50-week moving average followed by a break through the next resistance level, an end to monetary tightening or a stronger debasement trade that can outweigh it, and no new risk-off shock before year-end.

The Fed’s next move is therefore a key development to watch because a pause after October could give ETF demand more room to recover while removing one of the main pressures on risk assets. In that setup, $100,000 would remain a stretch target but with a clearer path, whereas another rate hike would leave Bitcoin facing restrictive financial conditions longer and make the move harder to achieve. 

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