XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) trades at $1.51 today, up over 50% from its $0.9877 cycle low on August 17. XRP has already priced in some optimism around the CLARITY Act, the bill that would classify XRP as a commodity under federal law, but it still has to clear a cloture vote on September 15 before the Senate can even hold a full vote.
If the CLARITY Act keeps moving toward becoming law, how high could XRP realistically trade by September, and would the rally hold once the news is priced in?
What Would the CLARITY Act Mean for XRP?
The CLARITY Act would classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law, instead of leaving it in the securities gray area that led the SEC to sue Ripple in December 2020.
The SEC and CFTC already classified XRP as a digital commodity in a joint intrepretation in march, but that is not law yet and another administration coud change it. So, the CLARITY Act is what would make it a permanent federal law. The reclassification would also incentivize large U.S. banks and asset managers to hold XRP directly, without the legal risk that has kept most of them out.
XRP rose above $1.50 after the Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 in May, before retracing to $1.40 as early buyers took profit. A committee vote only recommends action, but the Senate isn’t required to act on it.
So the bill stalled for months until Senate Majority Leader John Thune forced a cloture vote, a procedural motion that ends Senate debate and lets the chamber move to a full vote scheduled for September 15.
Even after that vote, the bill still needs a full Senate floor vote, reconciliation with the House’s own version, and the president’s signature before it becomes law.
XRP’s ETFs have recorded over $1.55 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in November 2025. If the CLARITY Act passes, asset managers would have a clearer reason to launch new XRP funds.
How High Could XRP Go by September?
Whether the cloture vote passes on September 15 will decide where XRP trades by September. Here’s what each outcome would mean for the XRP price.
Bull Outlook: $2.00
Between August 19 and August 22, XRP rallied around 70% in three days to reach $1.66. Heavily leveraged traders then got forced to close their positions, which pulled XRP back down to $1.44. Spot XRP ETFs also recorded a net inflow of $39.78 million the week of the rally, their best week since May, according to SoSoValue.
For XRP to reach $2 in September, ETF inflows would need to beat May’s $131.94 million 2026 monthly inflows high and keep climbing from there. Also, Bitcoin and the wider market must stay strong enough to pull new capital into XRP, instead of drawing that same money away from it.
Base Outlook: $1.65 to $1.70
If the cloture vote passes and ETF inflows hold near their current pace, XRP should retest $1.65 to $1.70, the same zone it broke through on August 22 before leveraged traders got forced out and pushed XRP back to $1.44 within hours.
Even with cloture passed, the Senate’s own calendar leaves roughly two weeks before midterm-season politics make further floor action unlikely. In that scenario, XRP would reach $1.65 to $1.70 by the end of September.
Bear Outlook: $1.20 to $1.40
Polymarket prices passage at only 20% to 24%, and Republicans hold 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats, which is short of the 60 votes cloture requires.
A failed cloture vote wouldn’t stop the bill from passing. Senate leadership could bring it up again, but the Senate’s calendar leaves little room after September 30 for another attempt before midterm-season politics take over, regardless of what happens on the 15th.
Without a passage catalyst, ETF inflows would likely fade back toward August’s weakest stretch, when seven of the month’s first eleven trading days recorded no net flow at all. XRP would trade mostly off Bitcoin’s direction, leaving its price between $1.20 and $1.40.
Which of the Outlook is Most Realistic?
XRP’s base prediction is more likely to happen than either the bull or bear outlook for September. Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act’s passage at only 20% to 24%, too low to justify the bull outlook’s assumption that the vote alone can carry XRP to $2. But the record $1.55 billion in cumulative ETF inflows and the 70% rally XRP posted in three days this month argue against the bear outlook too.
However, our view changes if the cloture vote fails on September 15 and Bitcoin’s price drops at the same time. XRP has traded mostly off Bitcoin’s direction whenever the CLARITY Act stalls.
If the cloture vote fails on its own, without a matching drop in Bitcoin, XRP could likely trade near $1.40. But if the vote fails and the broader market drops with it, that combination would strip out both the ETF demand and the price momentum supporting $1.65 to $1.70, and XRP could drop toward $1.20 instead.
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