Ethereum Reclaims $2,600 After Key Trendline Holds, Following Two Failed Attempts
A trendline that absorbed four separate tests in September has kept Ethereum from collapsing, but two rejections above $2,600 and a delayed upgrade are complicating what looks like a recovery.
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Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is trading at $2,603, reflecting a 6.43% increase over the past 24 hours and a 10.6% rise above its September low, which had briefly suggested a potential breakdown. The support line that underpinned four lows in September has proven resilient.
The coin now stands at a level that has turned it back twice in recent weeks. So what supported Ethereum’s price, and what lies ahead?
Ethereum’s Trendline Held Four Times and Never Broke
A trendline is drawn under a series of higher lows and becomes a critical decision point when price returns to it. Ethereum established this trendline by connecting four September lows between $2,355.20 and $2,382.33, with buyers stepping in each time.
Two of these tests occurred during notably turbulent days. ETH touched $2,356.82 on September 15, coinciding with the Senate’s decision to block the CLARITY Act, and hit $2,366.37 on September 16, the day the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point to a 4.00% upper limit, its first increase since 2023. Market reactions were subdued, as futures had already priced in an 86.5% probability of this hike.
| Level | What It Is | From $2,603.67 |
|---|---|---|
| $2,800 | September target on the current structure | 7.5% higher |
| $2,667.01 | September 11 high | 2.4% higher |
| $2,615.03 | September 14 rejection | 0.4% higher |
| $2,534 | Resistance now cleared | 2.7% lower |
| $2,434 | 20-day exponential moving average | 6.5% lower |
| $2,355 to $2,382 | The four-touch trendline | 9.6% lower |
Since early June, a death cross formed when the shorter moving average fell below the longer one. A golden cross has since replaced it and widened to $72.9, which is the same indicator pointing the other way.
Exchange Reserves Reach Their Lowest Level of 2026
Throughout this period, funds have been selling off their positions. On September 16, US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $224.11 million, the largest single-day outflow of the month, with BlackRock’s ETHA contributing $110.03 million, or 49% of the total.
Exchange reserves have now fallen to about 14.92 million ETH, the lowest for 2026, with over 42 million ETH staked, representing roughly 35% of the circulating supply. Staking locks up ETH to secure the network in exchange for yield, removing those coins from circulation.
Exchange reserves indicate the amount of coins that can be sold into the market, and this supply has been steadily diminishing as funds exit. The MVRV ratio’s first rise above 1.00 in 200 days suggests average holders are back in unrealized profit, which can encourage profit-taking.
Ethereum Faces Resistance Above $2,600 Again
Ethereum has attempted to surpass the $2,600 mark twice recently, only to be rejected both times. The September 14 rejection at $2,615.03 is just 0.4% above the current price, while the September 11 high of $2,667.01 is another 2.4% above, raising questions about the next significant move.
The Fear and Greed Index for Ethereum currently reads 69, signaling greed rather than the fear that was more typical in recent analysis. Historically, such high readings have preceded short-term corrections just as often as they have confirmed rallies.
A structural challenge persists beneath the surface. Layer 2 networks, designed to batch transactions and settle back to Ethereum, process about thirteen daily transactions for every one on the base layer. Consequently, much of the activity occurring on Ethereum captures little direct value for the coin.
The anticipated upgrade, Glamsterdam, intended to redirect more of that value back to holders, has failed to finalize on a development network. This delay is attributed to complexities around the state gas dimension in the improvement proposal, and the schedule has slipped multiple times, meaning all published dates for testnets and mainnets remain provisional.
Did Ethereum Bottom?
The evidence suggests a tentative yes. Long-term holders managed to keep their coins locked during the toughest week of the month, exchange reserves have reached their lowest point of the year, and the sellers visible in the market appear to be the funds that entered late and exit first when volatility increases.
The VIX, a measure of market volatility, stood at 17.71 on September 16, up from 14.53 a month earlier, indicating enough movement to trigger ETF sell-offs without reaching panic.
The level ETH is standing on makes that read incomplete. Two attempts above $2,600 have failed, the MVRV crossing hands a large group of holders a profit they can realize, and Glamsterdam has no confirmed date. Clearing $2,667 on a daily close turns this into a recovery, and a third rejection turns it into a range with a floor at $2,355 and a ceiling that ETH keeps failing to clear.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
