Cryptocurrency

The Average XRP Holder of the Past Year Is Down 12% and Bitcoin’s Is in Profit. Which One Rallies Next?

XRP holders have endured a painful stretch while Bitcoin investors sit near break-even, and now both coins are flashing signals that suggest a major move is coming for one of them.

By Sam Daodu
Published September 24, 2026, 3:42pm ET · 3 min read

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An infographic titled '24/7 Crypto Showdown: Bitcoin vs. XRP' visually compares the two cryptocurrencies. The left panel, dedicated to Bitcoin, features a gold Bitcoin symbol in an open safe, lists a market cap of ~$1.8T+, defines its primary role as a store of value/hedge, and shows a golden upward-trending graph representing capital preservation. The right panel for XRP displays its logo over a globe with circuit lines, notes a smaller market cap with higher 10x potential, describes its primary role in fast, low-cost cross-border payments, and shows a volatile green upward-trending graph representing outright growth. A final verdict at the bottom states that analysts prefer Bitcoin for conservative, long-term capital preservation over XRP's utility-driven growth potential, emphasizing their distinct roles.
This graphic compares Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP, outlining their distinct primary roles, market capitalization, and analyst views on their investment potential. It highlights why Bitcoin is seen as a digital gold standard while XRP serves as a utility network for payments. © 24/7 Wall St.

As of September 24, 2026, the average XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) holder over the past year is down about 12%, while the average Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holder is slightly in profit, according to analytics firm Santiment. This suggests an interesting dynamic between the two coins, as XRP and Bitcoin seem to be on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of holder profit.

Currently, XRP is priced at $1.51 and Bitcoin at $84,388. With these figures in mind, which coin is likely to rally next?

Santiment’s MVRV Shows XRP Holders Down 12% and Bitcoin Holders Near Break-Even

A red-toned composite image showing a cityscape with multiple buildings under a grid overlay, representing a financial chart. A thick white arrow points sharply downwards from the top left to the bottom right. Red bar charts with decreasing heights are displayed over the cityscape, with various numerical values indicating a decline.

Summit Art Creations / Shutterstock.com

Santiment’s figures come from the 365-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which gauges a coin’s current price against the average price paid by holders over the past year. A negative MVRV indicates that typical buyers are at a loss. For XRP, the MVRV sits at about -11.8%, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink are slightly above zero, reflecting a more favorable outlook for their holders.

XRP’s price dropped about 17% in 2026 and roughly 48% over the past year, while Bitcoin has dropped only about 3% this year. This performance has affected holder returns, with XRP and Dogecoin seeing larger losses while Bitcoin remains relatively stable.

XRP’s Reading Has Already Climbed From About -47% in July

A close-up of a golden cryptocurrency coin with the Ripple (XRP) logo and circuit board-like patterns. The coin rests on a blurred, deep red background that displays financial charts, including indistinct numbers and a large white arrow pointing downwards and to the right.

Tamisclao / Shutterstock.com

Earlier this year, Santiment noted that XRP’s 365-day MVRV had plummeted to around -47% in July, marking a historic low. At that time, XRP was trading near $1.14. Since then, XRP has bounced back roughly 32% to $1.51, bringing its MVRV up to about -12%. This recovery has allowed many holders who were deeply in the red to either sell or benefit from the upward price movement.

Comparatively, Bitcoin has also recovered, moving from an MVRV of about -26.6% in March to near break-even. However, the MVRV metric only accounts for coins that are actively moved, missing buying activity that remains on exchanges.

Bitcoin Has ETF Buying Behind It, and XRP Faces a Wall at $1.60

bitcoin with chart

Primakov / Shutterstock.com

Bitcoin is poised for its next move primarily through institutional buying rather than relying just on holder losses. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.7 billion in investments on September 21 and 22, signaling strong investor interest.

Meanwhile, XRP still has significant room to grow, trading 36% below its January 6, 2026 peak of $2.36. Despite attempts to break above $1.60 on September 22 and 23, XRP closed below this level both times. Additionally, XRP funds saw inflows of only $10 million to $19 million a week in September, suggesting slower momentum than Bitcoin.

Which Rallies Next, XRP or Bitcoin?

Based on the current data, Bitcoin seems more likely to rally next. Its holders are nearing break-even, meaning few hold large profits to cash out. Furthermore, the strong interest in spot ETFs suggests ongoing institutional buying support. Although XRP’s holder losses indicate a potential setup for recovery, much of that action has already occurred with its recent climb.

If XRP closes above $1.60—just about a 6% uplift from its current price—especially with increasing fund buying, it could surge. However, if Bitcoin ETF investments fall and outflows increase, it could lose its current momentum, regardless of its MVRV readings.

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Sam Daodu

Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.

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