The Average XRP Holder of the Past Year Is Down 12% and Bitcoin’s Is in Profit. Which One Rallies Next?
XRP holders have endured a painful stretch while Bitcoin investors sit near break-even, and now both coins are flashing signals that suggest a major move is coming for one of them.
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As of September 24, 2026, the average XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) holder over the past year is down about 12%, while the average Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holder is slightly in profit, according to analytics firm Santiment. This suggests an interesting dynamic between the two coins, as XRP and Bitcoin seem to be on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of holder profit.
Currently, XRP is priced at $1.51 and Bitcoin at $84,388. With these figures in mind, which coin is likely to rally next?
Santiment’s MVRV Shows XRP Holders Down 12% and Bitcoin Holders Near Break-Even
Santiment’s figures come from the 365-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which gauges a coin’s current price against the average price paid by holders over the past year. A negative MVRV indicates that typical buyers are at a loss. For XRP, the MVRV sits at about -11.8%, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink are slightly above zero, reflecting a more favorable outlook for their holders.
XRP’s price dropped about 17% in 2026 and roughly 48% over the past year, while Bitcoin has dropped only about 3% this year. This performance has affected holder returns, with XRP and Dogecoin seeing larger losses while Bitcoin remains relatively stable.
XRP’s Reading Has Already Climbed From About -47% in July
Earlier this year, Santiment noted that XRP’s 365-day MVRV had plummeted to around -47% in July, marking a historic low. At that time, XRP was trading near $1.14. Since then, XRP has bounced back roughly 32% to $1.51, bringing its MVRV up to about -12%. This recovery has allowed many holders who were deeply in the red to either sell or benefit from the upward price movement.
Comparatively, Bitcoin has also recovered, moving from an MVRV of about -26.6% in March to near break-even. However, the MVRV metric only accounts for coins that are actively moved, missing buying activity that remains on exchanges.
Bitcoin Has ETF Buying Behind It, and XRP Faces a Wall at $1.60
Bitcoin is poised for its next move primarily through institutional buying rather than relying just on holder losses. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.7 billion in investments on September 21 and 22, signaling strong investor interest.
Meanwhile, XRP still has significant room to grow, trading 36% below its January 6, 2026 peak of $2.36. Despite attempts to break above $1.60 on September 22 and 23, XRP closed below this level both times. Additionally, XRP funds saw inflows of only $10 million to $19 million a week in September, suggesting slower momentum than Bitcoin.
Which Rallies Next, XRP or Bitcoin?
Based on the current data, Bitcoin seems more likely to rally next. Its holders are nearing break-even, meaning few hold large profits to cash out. Furthermore, the strong interest in spot ETFs suggests ongoing institutional buying support. Although XRP’s holder losses indicate a potential setup for recovery, much of that action has already occurred with its recent climb.
If XRP closes above $1.60—just about a 6% uplift from its current price—especially with increasing fund buying, it could surge. However, if Bitcoin ETF investments fall and outflows increase, it could lose its current momentum, regardless of its MVRV readings.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
