CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $290,000 This Cycle. Is This Target Too Conservative?
CryptoQuant's founder sees this Bitcoin cycle playing out far differently than any before it, and his reasoning about who now owns Bitcoin challenges assumptions that bulls have taken for granted since 2017.
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Ki Young Ju, founder of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, believes Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) may only gain three to five times from its cycle low this cycle. This prediction suggests a peak around $290,000, a significant drop compared to previous cycles, each of which multiplied by at least eight times from its lows.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $83,803, up 10.5% this week and about 45% above its 2026 low. A fivefold gain from this low would require Bitcoin to climb by 246%, while a threefold gain would mean an increase of 108%.
Ki Young Ju’s 3x to 5x Call Puts Bitcoin’s Ceiling Between $174,000 and $290,000
Ju did not explicitly mention the $290,000 figure in a recent post on September 22, 2026, where he forecasted a cycle gain of three to five times instead of the more typical tenfold increase seen in previous cycles. Importantly, he did not provide a specific price target, timeframe, or basis for deriving this multiple. However, five times the June low of around $58,000 yields $290,000, while three times would be about $174,000.
His rationale centers on current Bitcoin ownership demographics. Ju argues that with greater institutional ownership and a larger market, short-term rallies and crashes seen in previous cycles, dominated by retail traders, are less likely. CryptoQuant’s data supports his view, showing that current holders have remained above their purchase prices even during the 2026 market decline.
Every Bitcoin Cycle Before This One Ran at Least 8x, and Each Ran Smaller Than the Last
Historical data reveals a pattern of diminishing returns in Bitcoin cycles. The cryptocurrency surged from $0.30 in January 2011 to $30 by June—an astonishing gain of about 100 times. It then rose from $172 in January 2015 to nearly $19,927 in December 2017, marking a gain of roughly 116 times.
From a baseline of $3,189 in December 2018, Bitcoin hit $68,770 by November 2021, totaling about 22 times that low. The most recent cycle, starting from a low of $15,598 in November 2022 to a peak of $126,296 in October 2025, reached around eight times that low.
A cycle low represents the lowest point before the next upward movement, which is why analysts measure from these lows. Bitcoin’s price history shows a pattern in which each peak follows a lower multiple than the last, as larger asset classes need more capital to achieve similar percentage moves. Ju’s forecast of a three- to five-times range fits this trend, indicating a milder cycle than any prior.
Bitcoin Has to Reclaim $126,296 Before $290,000 Comes Into View
Ju’s projections hinge on whether the low point of June 2026 initiated a new cycle or simply marked a temporary pause. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,296 in October 2025, then fell to $57,718 by July 1, but has since rebounded by 45%.
If we consider the June low a new cycle start, a threefold increase from that low would require about a 108% gain from today’s price, while a fivefold increase would need a 246% climb.
The immediate focus lies on reclaiming the October 2025 peak, roughly 51% higher than the current price. Until Bitcoin breaks through and holds above this level, the October peak will remain the cycle high, making the $290,000 target merely speculative.
Is $290,000 a Realistic Target for Bitcoin?
In our view, the $290,000 projection seems more like the high end of a range than a definitive target, with the lower end more likely. The trend of shrinking returns supports Ju’s estimate, as each cycle since 2017 has produced lower multiples than its predecessor. A threefold increase from the June low, landing around $174,000, aligns with that trend without breaking it. As Ju emphasizes, a fivefold increase depends on continued institutional investment.
Patience is crucial for this trade. Bitcoin needs to reclaim its October 2025 peak of $126,296 by the end of 2027 for the June low to be recognized as a new cycle’s starting point. If it fails to do so, the peak may already have been set in October 2025, and the $290,000 figure could become a challenge for the next cycle. Anyone buying now could end up earning only a modest return, possibly just doubling their investment based on Ju’s three- to five-time projections.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
