Can XRP Reach $3 Again in 2026? The Math From $1.53

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) needs a significant 96% increase from its current price of $1.53 to reach $3 by the end of 2026. This target holds weight since XRP traded as high as $3.65 in July 2025. Reaching this goal will take more than time; it will also require a close look at current market conditions, given that only about 95 days remain in the year.

Recent trends show a recovering momentum for XRP. Over the last 60 days, it’s increased by about 42%, and by 46% over the past 90 days. However, it’s still down 17% for 2026 and down 46% over the past year. To reach the $3 target, XRP must overcome both of these hurdles.

$3 Means a $189 Billion XRP, and Every Dollar Has to Come From New Buyers

For XRP to hit $3, its market value will need to grow from approximately $96.6 billion (calculated from the current price of $1.53 multiplied by 62.87 billion tokens in circulation) to around $189 billion. This means that buyers will need to add roughly $92 billion in value.

XRP does not generate earnings, pay dividends, or produce cash flow, so each part of this rise depends solely on new investors buying in.

Another factor to consider is XRP’s increased supply. Ripple, the company behind XRP, holds billions of tokens in escrow, which are slowly released. As these tokens are gradually released, the supply the $3 target has to cover is larger than in previous years.

XRP Has Done 96% in a Quarter Before, in November 2024

Interestingly, XRP has achieved similar gains before. For instance, in November 2024, it surged from approximately $0.51 on November 5 to around $2.40 by December 2—a staggering increase of nearly 370% in just one month. This massive jump was driven by the political climate and favorable regulatory changes in the U.S.

The current climb in 2026 has been more gradual. XRP rose from about $1.00 on August 18 to a high of $1.66 by September 23, which is around a 66% increase in five weeks, but then settled back to $1.53.

If it continues on this trajectory, reaching around $2.50 by early November would be plausible. However, reaching $3 would require a second surge of similar strength, likely starting from the price points where last year’s investors are waiting.

A Year of Underwater Holders Stands Between $1.53 and $3

Reaching $3 means overcoming a group of current holders who bought XRP at higher prices. XRP started 2026 at $1.84, which is about 20% above the current price.

According to Santiment’s one-year Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, many holders are currently down about 11.8%, meaning the average price they paid for their XRP was above $1.53. Often, investors who are underwater sell once the price approaches what they initially paid, adding selling pressure on the way up.

While recent investments from U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) show potential, bringing in about $75.6 million from September 22 to 25, this is just a fraction (about 0.1%) of the total market value. This suggests the funds will need sustained buying momentum over several months to fill the $92 billion gap needed for a successful climb to $3.

Can XRP Reach $3 in 2026?

In our assessment, the chances of XRP hitting $3 by December 31, 2026, appear low. While XRP has seen sharp increases in the past (like the November 2024 rally), that rise came from a clean slate without overhead selling pressure. Currently, XRP faces a year of hesitant holders eager to break even.

For XRP to have a realistic shot at the $3 target, it needs to hold $1.53, reclaim its 2026 opening price of $1.84 (about a 20% gain), and then cross $2 (around a 31% increase).

A weekly close above $2 before December would suggest improvements in momentum. Conversely, any dip below the September 16 low of $1.25 (around an 18% drop) would indicate that the upward trend may be losing steam.

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