10x Research Forecast Bitcoin Could Fall to $46,000, but What Really Happened?

Markus Thielen of 10x Research made two forecasts about a potential Bitcoin bottom during the summer of 2026, but Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) never dipped to those levels. On June 24, he suggested that Bitcoin could drop to $55,000 between late August and October. Just ten days later, on July 4, he revised his forecast, calling for a fall to between $46,000 and $47,000 before anticipating a 30% bounce back to $60,000 to $65,000 by year-end.

However, Bitcoin hit its 2026 low at $57,717 on June 30, just six days after the first forecast and four days before the second. Since then, it has surged nearly 49%, trading around $86,000 as of October 7—significantly above the $55,000 target and 85% higher than the middle of the lower range Thielen proposed.

The current rally does have its limitations. Bitcoin has risen about 8% in the past month but is still down roughly 30% from the previous year and trades about 32% below its record high of $126,080 from October 2025. So, where did Thielen’s bear case go wrong?

Why 10x Research Expected a Bitcoin Bottom at $46,000

Thielen’s June forecast was based on a strong US dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which was expected to keep interest rates high to combat inflation. A stronger dollar makes Bitcoin more expensive for investors using other currencies, while higher interest rates can make cash and bonds more appealing to investors. At the time, traders debated whether the Fed’s next move under Chair Kevin Warsh would be a rate hike rather than a cut.

In July, Thielen expanded his analysis by incorporating Elliott Wave theory, which interprets price charts as repeating wave patterns. He identified a first wave down to around $63,000 in February, followed by a rebound to between $82,000 and $83,000, and concluded with a final wave (Wave C) that would see prices drop to $46,000 to $47,000.

Market evidence supported his earlier claims. Between mid-May and July, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $7 billion in net outflows, and Strategy, the year’s largest buyer with about $13 billion in purchases, slowed its buying. As Thielen noted in July, “there’s no real buyer in the market right now.”

How Bitcoin ETF Buyers Broke the Bear Case

However, that claim about a lack of buyers was the one aspect of the forecast that was quickly tested, and the data soon contradicted it. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which allow everyday investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through regular brokerage accounts, attracted about $6.3 billion in the third quarter, including $2.3 billion in just four days at the end of September.

This influx of funds correlated directly with Bitcoin’s performance. Thielen had forecast that the bottom would occur between late August and October, but instead, Bitcoin rose from its June low during that timeframe.

The influx of ETF dollars also explains why his July wave count forecast failed. Wave C required active selling to push prices lower, but ETF investors were buying up the coins being sold instead. By late September, these funds controlled about 6.3% of all Bitcoin in circulation.

Thielen’s Dollar and Fed Calls Are Still Untested

On the macroeconomic side, we still need to evaluate Thielen’s calls about the dollar and the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin’s price rise alone doesn’t conclusively indicate whether his analysis of these factors was accurate. The Fed’s decision on rates during its September meeting was held on September 16, with another meeting slated for October 27 and 28. These outcomes will clarify whether rates have moved in line with Thielen’s expectations.

Moreover, his end-of-year range now looks different. Initially, Thielen projected Bitcoin would rebound to $60,000 to $65,000 from $46,000. With Bitcoin currently around $86,000, achieving that target would require a drop of roughly 24% to 30% by December 31—a very different scenario from his initial forecast.

What Did the Bitcoin Bottom Call Get Wrong?

The main flaw in the bear case was the misunderstanding of demand. Thielen’s outlook was predicated on the belief that buyers had exited the market, but ETF investors contributed $6.3 billion to Bitcoin funds in the same quarter he expected the bottom to form. Those who sold their Bitcoin near $59,000 around the time of his first forecast have missed out on about a 45% increase in value.

Nonetheless, the bear case could still make a return. If Bitcoin drops below its 2026 low of $57,717 before December 31, and if ETF outflows resume in the fourth quarter, Thielen’s lower price targets could come back into play. As long as Bitcoin stays above that critical level and demand from fund buyers remains strong, the assertion that there is “no real buyer” will continue to prove incorrect.

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