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Live: Will Applied Digital Fall on Q1 Earnings Tonight After Sinking 6% Intraday?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 7, 1:52pm ET · Published Oct 7, 1:53pm ET

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Applied Digital Falls 6% Ahead of Q1 Earnings. Here's the Number to Watch Tonight

Applied Digital heads into earnings with Wall Street expecting a loss of $0.3023 per share on $124.57 million in revenue. Revenue is expected to come in below last quarter’s fit-out-heavy total, but the headline number may matter less than the underlying revenue mix.

The bigger focus is recurring base rent from the 175 MW now live at Polaris Forge 1. With roughly $36 billion in signed lease revenue, investors will be watching for evidence that Applied Digital can steadily convert its massive contracted backlog into recurring NOI.

New leasing could be another major catalyst. Applied Digital has a 1.7 GW pipeline, but growth comes with a cost: management has guided to roughly $600 million in capital expenditures.

With debt-to-equity around 2.86, additional lease wins and rising base rent could strengthen the case for the company’s $1 billion NOI target.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 results today at 4:05 PM ET after the market closes. Shares fell 5.8% to $23.87 in today’s session, and this report will offer one of the first reads on how $36 billion of signed leases will turn into recurring rent.

Record Revenue Met a Skeptical Stock

Last quarter, fiscal Q4 revenue reached $258.75 million, up 580.7% year over year and far ahead of the $95.32 million consensus. Adjusted EPS of $0.04 exceeded the -$0.19 estimate.

Of that total, $152.4 million came from one-time tenant fit-out work, while base rent added $44.1 million at a 91% NOI margin.

Shares fell 12.77% the next day, then rose 17.47% within a week, but have slipped 9.48% over the past month. CEO Wes Cummins said all construction projects are on time and on budget, and the company now targets a $1 billion NOI run rate a year from now. The company is well ahead of schedule, with management reporting: “We’re three years ahead of schedule.”

Consensus Points to a Wider Loss

Metric Q1 FY27 Estimate YoY Change FY27 Estimate FY28 Estimate
Revenue $124.57M +94% $830.03M $1.92B
EPS -$0.3023 Larger loss vs. -$0.11 -$1.088 -$0.4835

The quarterly revenue estimate is well below last quarter’s total because fit-out revenue arrives in chunks. Analysts model FY28 revenue growth of 131% as new campuses open, yet the FY28 EPS average fell to -$0.4835 from $0.1150 60 days ago, with a range from -$1.4076 to $0.47.

What I’m Watching Tonight: Base Rent, New Leases and Leverage

Base rent is the first big metric to watch with Applied Digital tonight. Management said HPC results mainly came from the initial 100 megawatts, so this quarter will test whether the added 75 megawatts raise recurring rent above $44.1 million.

Leasing is another important factor for investors to watch. Management cited advanced talks with existing investment-grade customers for about 100 megawatts and 150 megawatts at “materially higher lease rates,” worth over $6 billion of signed revenue. Whether either deal closes remains the biggest unknown.

Funding is the third factor. Capex guidance of roughly $600 million meets about $5.0 billion of debt against $4.2 billion of cash and restricted cash, so I’ll be watching Macquarie equity funding and refinancing plans.

Customer concentration is another topic analysts will be watching. About $20 billion of signed revenue is with one hyperscaler, Polaris Forge 1 leans on CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), and stock-based compensation of $127.8 million weighed on GAAP results.

Six Straight Beats, Mixed First-Day Reactions

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q4 FY26 +121.05% -12.77% +17.47% +3.08%
Q3 FY26 +142.86% +2.7% +17.68% +74.38%
Q2 FY26 +46.78% +17.97% +10.27% +17.31%
Q1 FY26 +29.03% +0.74% +0.74% -15.95%
APLD earnings explorer

On average, shares traded +11.54% in the week following earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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