Bitcoin Has Made Higher Lows for Four Months. Which Price Would Break the Trend?
Bitcoin has quietly built a staircase of rising lows over four months, but a strategist warns that one specific price level, if breached and not reclaimed, could collapse the entire recovery case and reopen questions about where the cycle bottom…
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Since June 2026, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has hit higher lows during each pullback, but one strategist notes that falling below approximately $75,000 could signal the end of this trend. The first low was recorded at $57,717 on June 30. The September pullback found support around $75,000, while a wave of forced selling on October 8 brought the price down to about $80,000.
As of October 9, Bitcoin has bounced back slightly but remains under pressure, trading around $82,581. This reflects a 4% decline over the past week and a significant 35% drop from its October 2025 peak of $126,080. So, what price point could disrupt this upward trend of higher lows?
Bitcoin’s Lows Have Risen From $57,717 to $80,000
A “higher low” is a pullback that stops above the previous low, suggesting a gradual rise. Prices rarely rise in a straight line, so traders assess recovery by watching where each dip ends. If each dip ends higher than the last, it shows that buyers are entering the market sooner. The upside trend is broken when the latest low falls below the previous one.
For the past four months, Bitcoin has maintained this pattern. Following the June low, an August rally fueled by steady ETF buying pushed the price higher, while the September pullback found a floor around $75,000. Bitcoin then closed above its 50-week moving average on September 20, signaling a broader upward trend.
Bitcoin’s October 8 Drop Tested the Trend but Didn’t Break It
Before the latest pullback, Bitcoin held near $84,000. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, highlighted that Bitcoin’s heaviest cost-basis cluster lies between $83,600 and $84,800. This range represents where the most coins have changed hands, and many holders are likely to defend their break-even price, making it a support level.
However, this support was tested on October 8 when Bitcoin dropped to around $80,000 due to a liquidation cascade. This happens when falling prices compel exchanges to close traders’ borrowed positions, causing even further declines. Despite the drop, it stayed above the September low, allowing the higher-low trend to persist. Still, those who bought near $84,000 find themselves at a loss.
The Bitcoin Price Levels Luke Davis Is Watching
Luke Davis, founder and chief market strategist at Bull Market Blueprint, pointed out two critical levels in written answers to 24/7 Wall St. on October 8. He noted, “Around $80,000 is an important area for buyers to establish as support, but I’ve already allowed for temporary moves below it.” He added, “I would become more concerned if Bitcoin lost the September low around $75,000 and then failed to reclaim it on the next rebound.”
Davis also specified a crucial level: “A break beneath the June lows would definitively invalidate the claim that the cycle bottom is behind us.” On the upside, he identified a resistance zone between $85,500 and $94,500—an area where sellers have previously outnumbered buyers. Additionally, Bitcoin’s 2026 open was around $87,722, within this range, and it has struggled around the $87,000 mark three times since September 23.
Despite the recent hurdles, Davis remains optimistic, pointing out how much Bitcoin has held onto its recovery amid rising yields and a strengthening dollar. He expects that Bitcoin will finish December above the mid-$80,000s but is “more confident in the direction of the recovery than in assigning a precise closing price to December 31.”
What Bitcoin Price Would Break the Higher-Low Pattern?
To break the higher-low trend, Bitcoin would need to fall below about $75,000. If it drops below this level and fails to recover on the subsequent rebound, the higher-low pattern could be in jeopardy. The recent October 8 dip barely held above $80,000, keeping the trend intact for now.
To strengthen its recovery, Bitcoin must maintain support at $80,000, surpass its opening price of $87,722, and push through the resistance zone up to $94,500. Until then, investors may face a market that has protected its lows but continues to struggle against persistent resistance levels—the risk of buying before those ceilings are lifted.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
