Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer Sees Bitcoin at $100,000 Next and $300,000 by 2029. What Has to Hold First?
Fidelity's director of global macro sees Bitcoin entering a new bull market with a staggering long-term price target, but two key price levels stand between today's chart and that outcome, and one of them sits just 5% below where Bitcoin…
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Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer believes Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) may have entered a new four-year bull market, with an initial target of $100,000 and a long-term goal of $300,000 by 2029. Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, made this prediction in late September 2026.
This marks a shift from his earlier outlook in December 2025, when he suggested that 2026 could be “a year off” for Bitcoin, with support levels estimated between $65,000 and $75,000.
As of October 1, Bitcoin is trading near $83,995, which means it needs to rise about 19% to reach $100,000 and roughly 257% to hit $300,000. It remains about 33% below its all-time high of $126,080, reached in October 2025. So, what needs to happen for Timmer’s Bitcoin price targets to become a reality?
Timmer’s Bitcoin Model Relies on Long-Term Trends and Gold
Timmer’s analysis is based on two key tools. The first is a power law trend that charts Bitcoin’s price movements since 2010 on a logarithmic scale, making it easier to visualize its exponential growth. On this scale, Bitcoin’s rise resembles a straight line, and the model expects the price to continue fluctuating around it.
The second approach compares how much gold one Bitcoin can buy against its 52-week average. This measure, known as a Z-score, currently sits at about 6% after previously falling to nearly -100%. This shift indicates that Bitcoin has rebounded from a zone where it appeared unusually cheap compared to gold.
Historically, the three prior cycle lows in this measure reached around -120%, -118%, and -102%. This time, the cycle’s low came in at a shallower level. Timmer’s model views a return above zero as a positive signal.
A Double Bottom Near $60,000 Sets Up Bitcoin’s $100,000 Target
A double bottom is a chart pattern that forms when price drops to a low point, rebounds, falls back to a similar low, and then rises, creating a “W” shape. Bitcoin reached lows of about $57,742 in late June and around $60,033 later. Timmer identifies $60,000 as a critical support level.
This pattern completes when price breaks above the peak between the two lows, known as the neckline. Timmer has positioned this neckline near $80,554, suggesting a move above it could lead to a surge toward approximately $103,000, with the first target at $100,000.
However, sellers have been active in the $82,000 to $86,000 range. Bitcoin reached $87,500 on September 27 but has since retreated to around $84,000, indicating it is still navigating this resistance zone.
Bitcoin’s Rebound Has Gaps Timmer’s Model Does Not Cover
Bitcoin recently recorded its best week since January, yet its 8% gain over the past month is the weakest among major cryptocurrencies. Timmer’s model focuses mainly on Bitcoin’s relationship with gold and its own trend, offering limited insight into shifts toward Ethereum, XRP, or Solana.
The model’s history includes significant drops, with past declines ranging from 56% to 63%. Bitcoin fell about 54% from its record high in 2025 to its June low, so another substantial drop could align with Timmer’s described cycle.
The $300,000 price target is still more than three years away. Factors like interest rate hikes from the Fed, impending regulations, or a failed price breakout could all influence the trajectory before then. Other long-term forecasts, like Tom Lee’s target of $250,000, also rely on the unfolding of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
What Has to Hold Before Bitcoin Reaches Timmer’s $100,000?
Bitcoin has a fair shot at completing the double bottom formation, but this model alone doesn’t make the likelihood of reaching $300,000 by 2029 clear. First, Bitcoin must stay above about $80,000, about 5% below its current level. It must also break through the resistance at $86,000, just 2% higher. Achieving this would make Timmer’s $100,000 target—roughly 19% away—much more attainable.
If Bitcoin drops below $80,000, the W formation may remain incomplete, shifting focus back to the crucial $60,000 floor—nearly 29% below its current price. A decline below $60,000 could undermine Timmer’s central premise. Conversely, a sustained move above $86,000 could provide strong evidence that Timmer’s $100,000 prediction is gaining momentum.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
