What Happens to Bitcoin When Billions in Options Expire?
Billions of dollars in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Deribit this October, and traders are fixated on a single price point they believe the market gravitates toward. Whether that theory holds up could determine if Bitcoin's two-month…
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traders are closely watching two key dates on Deribit, the largest Bitcoin options exchange: a weekly expiry on October 16, 2026, and the major monthly expiry on October 30. As these dates approach, there are often warnings about billions of dollars’ worth of contracts set to expire, with emphasis on a “max pain” price that Bitcoin supposedly gravitates towards.
As of October 15, Bitcoin is trading at $82,306, having dipped to a 24-hour low of $79,806 before rebounding. This recovery fits a pattern from the past two months, during which Bitcoin has risen by 29.9%. However, it is still down 6.7% for the year and has dropped 26.3% compared to the same time last year.
So, what happens to the price when these contracts expire? Does the max pain theory provide any insight?
What Happens When Bitcoin Options Expire
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price, known as the strike price, before a specific expiration date. A call option lets the buyer purchase Bitcoin at the strike price, gaining value when Bitcoin’s price rises above it. Conversely, a put option lets you sell at the strike price, gaining value when Bitcoin’s price dips below it.
Every option has an expiry date, which is when the contract either settles with value or becomes worthless. On Deribit, weekly options expire every Friday at 08:00 UTC, while monthly options expire at the same time on the final Friday of the month. In October, this means contracts expire at 4 a.m. Eastern Time, just hours before U.S. stock markets open.
When contracts expire on Deribit, they settle at an official delivery price, calculated as a 30-minute average of its Bitcoin index. This method makes it harder for a single large trade to sway the settlement price. Options that expire “in the money”—meaning they still hold value at expiration—convert into a corresponding futures contract at the strike price, which then settles in cash.
Expiry timing also affects market liquidity, as Bitcoin trading volume tends to drop over the weekend. When hedges are unwound at settlement, the market enters the weekend with fewer significant orders on both sides.
Why Traders Monitor the Bitcoin Max Pain Price
Max pain refers to the strike price where the total value of all outstanding options contracts is lowest for option buyers. Essentially, it is the price where the sellers, usually market makers, face the smallest overall loss. Traders identify this price by calculating the total value of all open calls and puts at every potential settlement price and selecting the strike price with the lowest total.
The expected price pull around max pain stems from hedging activities. Market makers who sell options often buy or sell Bitcoin to balance their risk—this practice is known as delta hedging. As expiry approaches, this hedging typically centers on strikes with high open interest, which can help keep price within a narrow range.
After settlement, market makers often unwind these hedges, which can lead to larger price moves in the days following a large expiry. However, max pain is a tendency, not a certainty, and many expiries settle far from this predicted price. Factors such as breaking news, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, or major liquidations can quickly overshadow any options-related impact.
The October 30 Monthly Expiry Outweighs the October 16 Weekly
The October 16 contract reflects a weekly expiry characterized by shorter-term positions and typically carries less open interest than a monthly expiry. In contrast, the October 30 monthly expiry reflects a larger buildup of positions that traders accumulate over weeks, making it the month’s largest expiry.
Traders evaluate each expiry using various indicators. Notional value is the total dollar value of the Bitcoin the contracts cover, while open interest tallies the number of contracts still outstanding.
Meanwhile, the put/call ratio compares open puts to open calls, with a ratio above 1 indicating more traders are seeking downside protection than upside potential. Max pain, lastly, is the strike price where option buyers would collectively realize the smallest gains.
CoinGlass and Deribit update these metrics for every expiry, and the figures can change daily as traders adjust their positions. Therefore, the October 30 expiry data might shift significantly through October 29. The most valuable comparison occurs in the final days when traders can see how far Bitcoin’s current price is from the max pain strike.
On October 15, Bitcoin’s trading activity showed how quickly market buying and selling can overpower the options calendar. The price fluctuated between $79,806 and $82,306 in a single day.
Will the October 30 Bitcoin Options Expiry Affect Prices?
The October 16 weekly expiry is expected to have minimal impact, while the October 30 monthly expiry could keep Bitcoin price near max pain as the settlement date approaches. Even then, any pull will likely be modest, with larger price movements typically occurring after the settlement. Additionally, stable stock market conditions could amplify options’ impact, as the VIX—the measure of expected S&P 500 volatility—was at a normal level of 16.9 on October 14.
The $79,806 low from October 15 is the level to watch. Holding above it through the October 30 settlement would show buyers kept control, while a close below it could mean unwinding hedges removed support, giving the rally since mid-August its first serious test.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
