Will Bitcoin Hit $95,000 by the End of October? A $3.2 Million Options Bet Says Yes.

A trader has initiated a $3.2 million options position on Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange. This trade is designed to profit the most if Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) settles around $95,000 on October 30, 2026.

The strategy is a butterfly spread, which means the trade will earn less if Bitcoin moves significantly above that price. This reflects a more focused prediction on where Bitcoin will end up, rather than how high it might go.

As of September 24, Bitcoin is trading at $84,388, down 2% for the day, but up 10.4% over the past week, recovering from three consecutive quarters of losses that ended in June. To reach $95,000 by October 30, Bitcoin needs to increase by 12.6% in just five weeks. So, can Bitcoin actually hit $95,000 by that date, and what does this trade suggest?

The $3.2 Million Trade Is a Butterfly Spread That Earns the Most at $95,000

In options trading, a call option lets the owner buy Bitcoin at a specific price, known as the strike price, on a specific date, called the expiry date. The owner pays an upfront cost called the premium. A butterfly spread combines three strike prices — it involves buying one call option below the target price, selling two call options at the target price, and buying one call option above the target price.

This configuration means that the position will achieve its maximum profit if Bitcoin lands exactly at the middle strike price on October 30. The profit will decrease if Bitcoin ends above or below that target price, and the trader’s maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. This structure reflects a precise prediction within a narrow price range, suggesting the trader is less optimistic about a significant Bitcoin rally.

The October 30 $95,000 Call Is the Largest Open Position on Deribit

The trader chose a popular price point, as the largest open position on Deribit is the October 30 $95,000 call, which covers about 23,275 Bitcoin—around $2 billion at current prices. The second-largest position is for the $90,000 call, covering about 15,590 Bitcoin, or $1.3 billion, followed by the $100,000 call at approximately 12,850 Bitcoin, valued at about $1.1 billion.

Jean-David Péquignot, Deribit’s chief commercial officer, notes a significant concentration of call options at the $85,000, $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 strike prices. These blocks often function like the butterfly spread and can reflect either traders expecting a price rally or holders merely selling calls to collect premiums, which complicates the interpretation of Deribit’s open-interest metrics.

These concentrations can still influence Bitcoin’s market price, as dealers who issued these calls often buy Bitcoin to hedge their positions when the price approaches the strike. This buying can further drive prices up, a phenomenon known as a gamma squeeze. Conversely, when prices fall away from the strike, these dealers typically sell their Bitcoin back into the market.

$16 Billion Worth of Bitcoin Options Expire on September 25, Ahead of the October Deadline

Around $16 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on September 25, just five weeks before the targeted October 30 date. Of this, $9.6 billion is in call options, while $6.4 billion is in put options. The “max pain” price — where the largest number of options would expire worthless — hovers around $76,000, roughly 10% below Bitcoin’s current value.

Péquignot points to put options at $60,000, $70,000, and $75,000, suggesting support near $75,000, about 11% below the current price. This aligns with where Bitcoin found support on September 15, at around $74,900, before rising about 17% to a peak near $87,400 on September 22.

Once the September options settle, the hedging strategies tied to those contracts will unwind. Consequently, some of the buying activity that helped lift Bitcoin’s price in September may decrease. The broader market remains stable, with the VIX — a measure of expected volatility in the S&P 500 — closing at 14.2 on September 22.

Can Bitcoin Reach $95,000 by October 30?

Bitcoin can indeed hit that $95,000 target, but this particular trade doesn’t guarantee it. Reaching that mark requires a 12.6% increase in just five weeks, a smaller climb than the 17% rise from September 15 to September 22. Thus, one significant rally could propel it there. However, the butterfly spread reflects a trader’s view of a narrow price range with limited risk, and the crowded $95,000 strike suggests positioning rather than an influx of new capital.

The upcoming September 25 expiry is especially important. If Bitcoin holds above $87,400 — 3.6% higher than its current price — after the September contracts settle, the path to $95,000 remains possible. This scenario could expand if spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, which hit $999 million on September 21, according to SoSoValue. Conversely, if Bitcoin slides toward $76,000, the $95,000 target may become increasingly unlikely, and even then it remains 25% below the October 2025 peak of $126,198.

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