JPMorgan Expects Bitcoin to Beat Stocks and Gold Over the Next Decade. Why Is Justin Sun Turning More Bearish?

J.P. Morgan Asset Management, part of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM | JPM Price Prediction), has included Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in its long-term return forecasts for the first time. In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the bank forecasts that Bitcoin could deliver a 10% compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years, outperforming U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, U.S. REITs at 8.2%, and gold at 5.5%.

The report estimates Bitcoin’s arithmetic annual return at 20.9%, which is the average of its yearly gains and losses. However, because significant losses reduce savings, the compound annual return is lower, with a forecast of 10%. Bitcoin’s annual volatility is projected at 55%, indicating how much its price can fluctuate in a typical year.

In contrast, Justin Sun, the founder of Tron (CRYPTO: TRX), has adopted a more cautious stance. In an interview with William Joy published October 16, 2026, Sun said advancements in AI algorithms and quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s security, making him “slightly more bearish.” He argued that many ETF holders and others in the industry have not fully recognized these potential threats.

As of October 20, Bitcoin is priced at $81,453, having dropped 1.1% in the last 24 hours, 1.9% over the past week, and 6.8% year-to-date. This raises the question: should Bitcoin investors focus more on JPMorgan’s optimistic forecast or Sun’s warnings?

JPMorgan’s Bitcoin Forecast Comes Without a Bitcoin Allocation

JPMorgan’s long-term capital market assumptions estimate potential returns for various investments. These estimates help financial advisors and pension funds decide how to allocate capital among different asset classes. Although these estimates now include Bitcoin, JPMorgan has cautioned that it has not yet integrated Bitcoin into its primary covariance matrices, which determine portfolio allocations.

The report does not introduce a Bitcoin-focused investment product or allocate resources for Bitcoin purchases. Instead, it serves as a research reference for financial advisors discussing Bitcoin with their clients.

Based on JPMorgan’s compound return estimate, a $10,000 investment in Bitcoin could grow to approximately $25,937 over a decade. While this forecast offers hope, it is speculative, and the projected 55% annual volatility means investors should be wary of possible declines.

Justin Sun Says AI Could Break Bitcoin’s Security Within 18 Months

Sun’s concerns extend beyond typical fears about quantum computing. He argues that advances in AI, combined with standard computing capabilities, may undermine current cryptographic security before quantum technology becomes widespread. He estimated that this risk could materialize within 1 to 1.5 years, potentially exposing unprotected wallets or private keys.

Sun also criticized major financial institutions like BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) for holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin without fully understanding the risks associated with quantum computing, suggesting this lack of awareness may lead to market mispricing. His concerns merit attention, especially since many Bitcoin holdings are stuck in older wallets whose users have lost their keys, leaving them vulnerable if an attack occurs.

However, Sun has his own interests. As the founder of Tron, which competes directly with Bitcoin, and as an advisor for the HTX exchange, his bearish perspective may be influenced by his competition with Bitcoin.

Cryptographers and Bitcoin Developers Push Back on Sun’s Timeline

Many cryptographers believe that the threat posed by classical computers is being overstated. Bitcoin’s security relies on elliptic-curve cryptography, which experts say conventional computers are unlikely to break within any realistic timeframe. Although Sun mentioned discussions about OpenAI’s mathematical advances, he did not provide evidence of any specific, actionable threat.

In fact, Bitcoin developers are actively working to address potential quantum risks. A proposal known as BIP 360, which aims to create quantum-resistant address types, was added to Bitcoin’s improvement proposal repository in February 2026. Its authors are exploring options to implement post-quantum signatures, suggesting that while they consider the risks, significant upgrades take time and require broad agreement within the developer community.

Market sentiment suggests ETF investors are unfazed by the perceived risks. On October 16—the day of Sun’s interview— U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $ 82.4 million, but investors quickly turned around, adding $526.6 million on October 19, bringing total net assets to $105.5 billion. These flows do not conclusively prove holders have priced in quantum risk, but they suggest no urgent sell-off.

Should Bitcoin Investors Trust JPMorgan’s Bitcoin Forecast or Justin Sun’s Warning?

Both headlines seem mostly like noise for Bitcoin’s near-term price. JPMorgan’s forecast gives Bitcoin a line in a planning spreadsheet, but that only becomes buying if advisers move money, and JPMorgan’s own models cannot recommend a Bitcoin allocation until the coin joins the main covariance matrices. Likewise, Sun’s warning only hurts Bitcoin if someone demonstrates a working attack.

Both views are timing claims in opposite directions. JPMorgan looks 10 to 15 years out and assumes Bitcoin’s security holds, while Sun set his claim’s deadline at 12 to 18 months. If coins in old, inactive addresses start moving without explanation inside that window, his bearish view gains hard evidence. If the window passes quietly and a future report adds Bitcoin to JPMorgan’s main covariance matrices, the bullish forecast becomes something portfolios can act on.

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