Ethereum Analysis: Exchanges Took In 100,000 ETH This Week as Big Holders Sold. Is $2,000 Next?

Ethereum’s (CRYPTO:ETH) biggest holders sold heavily this week. According to Santiment data, large wallets sold about 160,000 ETH, worth over $348 million, during this week. At the same time, exchange balances rose by about 100,000 ETH, suggesting more coins may be queued for sale. Traders often view these trends as early indicators of increased selling pressure.

Despite this selling, ETH’s price has remained relatively stable, trading around $2,351, up 0.81% in the last 24 hours. It has held above its recent 30-day low of roughly $2,321, set on October 26, 2026. However, the asset fell 12.4% in October 2026 and 20.8% since the start of the year.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests that if Ethereum stays below $2,385 while exchange balances remain high, the downside target of $2,000 could become a reality—an important level ETH has tested before. ETH trades below $2,385. Is the whale selling a wall of supply, or does the on-chain data have a duller explanation?

Why Traders See the Whale and Exchange Numbers as Bearish

Santiment provides insights into wallet balances on public blockchains and differentiates between those held by regular users and exchanges. Their exchange balance metric tracks all ETH held in exchange wallets, while their large-holder metric monitors the total ETH held by major wallets, often referred to as whales.

Traders interpret these metrics similarly. An influx of coins to exchanges typically indicates building sell pressure, since those coins must first be on an exchange before they can be sold for cash. When whale balances drop in the same timeframe, it signals that big holders may be exiting their positions, which analysts tend to see as a bearish indicator.

Why the Exchange Inflow Indicator Might Be Misleading

The reported 100,000 ETH that entered exchanges shows where coins went, not what happened next. Although moving coins to exchanges often precedes selling, it can also mean an institutional investor depositing ETH for custody or a market maker increasing its inventory.

Some of these deposits might serve as collateral for derivatives trading, which could back either bullish or bearish positions, so this collateral alone can’t show which way those coins lean.

Similarly, the whale metric has its limitations. A large wallet that splits its holdings across multiple smaller addresses may no longer count as a large holder without selling any ETH. Some large wallets are connected to exchanges or funds, so the 160,000 ETH reduction and the 100,000 ETH increase on exchanges could be reporting the same coins twice.

Most trades happen within exchange order books and aren’t recorded on the blockchain, so Santiment can track coins arriving at exchanges without seeing who’s buying them. Price offers the clearest tell here. If 100,000 ETH had suddenly flooded the order books, the price would likely have dropped below October 26’s low. Instead, it held steady, suggesting buyers absorbed most of the supply rather than letting it pile up.

ETF Outflows Are the Clearest Sign of Selling Pressure

Spot Ether ETFs—which hold ETH for investors—lost $170.2 million in the week ending October 26, 2026, according to SoSoValue, reflecting a broader trend. When investors redeem ETF shares, issuers must sell ETH to accommodate those redemptions, and those coins typically go through exchange-linked custody first. That’s genuine selling, and because the ETF data is tracked separately from Santiment’s on-chain figures, the two carry more weight together than either alone.

Outflows from ETF funds haven’t slowed down, continuing a downward trend. SoSoValue reported $21.4 million leaving the funds on October 28 and $60.2 million on October 27, after a $ 220.6 million outflow the week before. Total net inflow has fallen from $13.95 billion on September 29 to $12.55 billion by October 28, with only a few up days since late September, the largest a $24.8 million uptick on October 13.

One trader with a proven track record took the opposite stance, opening a $45 million long position that profits if ETH rises. That shows some confidence, but a single position can close within hours, while ETF outflows reflect investors withdrawing funds week after week.

Ethereum’s next network upgrade, Glamsterdam, still hasn’t given buyers a target date. Developers merged a fix for validator deposits on October 27, but the Hoodi testnet date, the trial network where upgrades run before going live, remains unset.

Is $2,000 Next for Ethereum?

ETH faces resistance at $2,390. Beyond that, its 20-day moving average is around $2,424, with the 50-day average even higher at approximately $2,537. Support holds at $2,290, $2,276, $2,200, and $2,100, with the 200-day average near $2,159.

We see $2,000 as a potential target after breaking through $2,200. To reach this point, ETH will need to break below $2,290, then $2,276, then $2,200, then the 200-day average at $2,159, and finally $2,100—each a level where buyers could step in.

The $2,000 goal seems realistic, since ETH closed as low as about $1,843 on August 1, 2026. This price point falls within a range ETH traded in just three months ago. On-chain data alone has its limits, but a couple of trackable signs could sharpen the read (our broader Ethereum price outlook covers the longer run).

If Ethereum posts another week of ETF outflows near $170.2 million, that would point to redemption selling, pushing $2,000 within reach. A run of daily inflows could instead counter the bearish read. A close below $2,276 exposes $2,200 and the 200-day average next, while a close above $2,390 that holds the 20-day average near $2,424 would clear Martinez’s $2,385 line, pointing more toward custody adjustments than a sell-off.

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