A Trader With a Perfect Record Just Opened a $45 Million Long on Ethereum. What Does He See?
A crypto trader with five wins from five trades just placed a massive leveraged bet that Ethereum's selloff is nearly over, going long while ETF investors and big wallets are sprinting for the exit.
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A trader with a perfect record just put $45.3 million behind Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH). They opened the position with ETH trading at $2,351, up 0.8% over 24 hours, a modest gain after a rough month. Ethereum is down 12.2% over the past 30 days and trades 52.5% below its all-time high of $4,946, set on August 24, 2025.
Lookonchain, a firm that tracks large crypto wallets, reported today that the trader opened a 25x Ethereum long on 19,491 ETH. A long is a position that profits if the price rises. So what does the trader behind this Ethereum long see that the sellers don’t?
A Flawless Trader Opens a Highly Leveraged Long Against the Crowd
The trader’s record is short but spotless. Lookonchain counts five trades, all winners, for a 100% win rate and $4.6 million in total profit. When it was identified, the new Ethereum long already showed $315,000 in unrealized profit, a paper gain that disappears if the price turns before the trader closes the position.
Leverage deserves more attention than win rate. With a 25x position, the trader borrows most of the money and puts up only a fraction of their own as collateral, called margin. If Ethereum moves about one-twenty-fifth against the entry price, that margin is gone, the exchange force-closes the trade, and that forced close is a liquidation.
The exact entry and liquidation prices haven’t been reported publicly, so Ethereum’s nearby support levels carry extra weight.
Ethereum Faces ETF Outflows and Whale Selling While Stocks Stay Calm
The trader is going against the crowd. Spot Ether ETFs, funds that hold real Ethereum for stock-market investors, lost $21.4 million on October 28, 2026, their third straight day of outflows, according to SoSoValue.
Big wallets are heading for the exit too. Santiment data shows large holders cut about 160,000 ETH, while ETH held on exchanges rose about 100,000 ETH, and people tend to move coins onto exchanges when they’re getting ready to sell. So the trader is buying directly into the supply whales are offloading.
Stock markets look calm, suggesting a crypto-specific selloff rather than a broader panic. The VIX, an index of how much price swinging traders expect from the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, closed at 16.91 on October 28, 2026, inside its normal range of 15 to 20. With no outside trigger in sight, the long looks like a contrarian call that the selling has nearly run its course.
Ethereum Trails Bitcoin While Stuck Under Both Key Averages
Ethereum trades below its 20-day moving average of $2,424 and its 50-day average of $2,537, meaning most recent buyers are underwater. Its 200-day average of $2,159 is still below the price, so the longer uptrend stays intact.
Ethereum has two nearby support levels, prices where buyers have stepped in before: $2,290 and $2,276. It dipped to $2,290 on October 26, 2026, and to $2,276 on October 24, 2026, and buyers pushed it back up before the day closed both times.
The current bounce came in one burst. Ethereum climbed from $2,325 to $2,351 in mid-morning New York trading, topped out at $2,377, and then gave back most of that gain, so buyers lost momentum fast.
Ethereum has also fallen far behind Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). Bitcoin trades at $80,994, up 0.5% over 24 hours and down only 3.2% over the past month, while Ethereum is down 12.2% over the same stretch. Solana (CRYPTO:SOL), at $102, fell 14.6% in those 30 days, and over 90 days Solana gained 39.7% versus Bitcoin’s 28.9% and Ethereum’s 26.4%, so Ethereum trailed both on the way up and on the way down.
Can Ethereum Reclaim Its 20-Day Average Before Support Breaks?
A quick recovery looks unlikely, since the long depends on shifts that haven’t happened yet. ETF outflows would need to turn into inflows, and whales would need to stop sending coins to exchanges, and the latest data shows the opposite on both. Without those buyers, one wallet’s bullish call probably can’t hold up the price for long.
Heavy leverage can work against the bulls too. If Ethereum falls far enough, exchanges force-sell leveraged longs, and that selling pushes the price lower and triggers more liquidations, a cascade that can wipe out a position fast. If you hold Ethereum, the first test is a close above $2,424; a close above $2,537 would put the trend on the trader’s side, while a close below $2,276 would force-sell your long.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
