Tom Lee’s Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:GRNY) is once again running ahead of the broader market in 2026, and its co-founder is now publicly targeting S&P 500 8,000. GRNY has returned 10.4% year to date through July 17, compared with 9% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF over the same stretch. That gap looks modest, but it comes on top of GRNY’s 17.7% one-year return and has helped push the fund to roughly $4.4 billion in net assets, from under $2 billion a year ago.
What the Fund Actually Owns Right Now
GRNY is an actively managed, rules-based portfolio of 41 positions where each holding must satisfy at least two of Lee’s long-term themes: AI, energy security, cybersecurity, millennial spending, and reshoring, among others. That thematic overlap explains why the current top weights are AMD at 4.13%, Quanta Services at 3.17%, GE Vernova at 3.02%, Strategy at 2.98%, and Amazon at 2.99%. It is essentially an AI infrastructure and electrification portfolio wrapped around a handful of mega caps, with a small cash sleeve in a government money market fund. The expense ratio is roughly 0.75%, high for a large-cap product, which is the toll for the active thematic overlay.
Lee’s public case for S&P 8,000 rests on margin expansion continuing into 2027, and the fund is built to lean into that view. For anyone holding GRNY, two variables actually determine whether the fund keeps beating the broad market.
Macro Factor: The 10-Year Yield
The single most important macro input for GRNY over the next 12 months is the 10-year Treasury yield, currently 4.57% and sitting in the 96.8 percentile of its trailing-year range. GRNY’s largest weights are long-duration equities whose multiples compress fastest when the long bond sells off. The 14 basis point rise over the past month already coincided with GRNY’s flat month, and a break above the May high of 4.67% would be the level to watch.
Track it weekly on the Treasury Department’s daily yield curve page or FRED series DGS10, and check the CME FedWatch tool around each FOMC meeting for the rate-cut path priced in. When 10-year yields fell from 4.8% to 3.6% in late 2023, high-multiple AI names in this same basket rallied more than 40%. A move back through 4.30% would be the tell that Lee’s 8,000 case has the tailwind it needs.
Fund Factor: The Thematic Rebalance
The fund-specific variable that matters most is the quarterly rebalance, because GRNY is equal-weight-ish and rules-based. Lee has publicly floated adding Sovereign Security and Gen Z as new themes, and he has already lifted energy exposure to around 8% through selected industrial and energy-transition names. Any theme addition or subtraction changes which stocks clear the two-theme threshold, which in turn drives turnover.
The place to monitor this is the fund’s monthly holdings file on the Fundstrat ETF site and the quarterly N-PORT filings on SEC EDGAR. If the next rebalance trims the AI infrastructure weights in favor of energy transition and sovereign security names, GRNY’s correlation to the NASDAQ 100 falls and its sensitivity to industrial capex rises. That is a very different fund than the one investors bought a year ago.
The Bottom Line
For investors sizing GRNY today, the edge over the index has been concentrated in a narrow set of long-duration AI names, and that edge is only as durable as the rate backdrop and the next rebalance allow it to be.
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