ADP’s Ill Omen For Unemployment and Payrolls

The reading for June from ADP came in at +13,000 jobs.  Dow Jones had estimates at +60,000, so this will likely guide down the Payrolls data due on Friday.  May was also revised a tad higher to +57,000 from +55,000 originally reported.

As far as what to expect on Friday, Bloomberg has the following estimates:

• non-Farm Payrolls expected at -100,000, with a range of -165,000  to 431,000
• Unemployment Rate of 9.8%, with a range of 9.6% to 9.9%
• Average Hourly Earnings +0.1% and Avg. Workweek of 34.2 hours

The issue to consider for Friday is that many are still looking for a positive number, with the wild card being the seasonality and those pesky Census workers.  Last month’s reading would have been disaster without those hires.  The hope that June was the great breakout month for employment has just dwindled a bit more.

JON C. OGG