Huge Drop in Weekly Jobless Claims, with a Big Caveat

To smooth out the report, the four-week average was down to 364,000 and the army of unemployed measured by the continuing claims (with a one-week lag) fell by 15,000 down to 3.273 million.

With so many analysts, economists, market pundits, journalists, traders and political figures fighting over how valid the drop to 7.8% from 8.1% unemployment, today’s jobless report may matter more than many will give it credit for. That being said, Dow Jones pointed out that one large state did not report additional quarterly figures that were expected, and this may be a substantial portion of that decrease.

We would wait for a smoothing out of this data before making any final decision about how one weekly number would influence the markets.

JON C. OGG