Retirees Who File SSA-44 in October With an Income Estimate Can Get 2027 IRMAA Fixed Before January. Wait for the Notice and the Refund Chase May Come Instead
Medicare prices your 2027 Part B premium from income you earned two years ago, and Social Security has no reason to look again unless you force it. One form filed in October changes that math before the first January check…
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A retiree who left a $170,000 salary in September has a Medicare problem with a delay built in. Medicare sets his 2027 premiums from his 2025 income, which was his last full year of pay. His 2026 income will come in near $90,000. Social Security won’t automatically see that drop until newer tax data catches up. October is the month to assemble his income estimate and proof of retirement so he can request a new determination as soon as Social Security notifies him that 2027 IRMAA applies.
The stakes are narrow. CMS says about 8% of Part B enrollees pay the income-related surcharge, called IRMAA. Under 2026 rules, it starts above $109,000 of income for single filers and $218,000 for joint filers. Using 2026 thresholds for illustration, retirees at or below those income levels pay the standard $202.90 Part B premium and no IRMAA; the 2027 thresholds are not final yet.
Your 2025 Paycheck Is Setting Your 2027 Premium
IRMAA uses modified adjusted gross income (MAGI): your adjusted gross income plus tax-exempt interest. Municipal bond interest looks tax-free, but it matters.
CMS reveals the new Part B figures in November, so the 2026 table below serves as the example. A single filer with a MAGI of $170,000 falls in the $137,000 to $171,000 tier. That adds $202.90 a month in Part B IRMAA, for a total Part B premium of $405.80, plus $37.50 a month in Part D IRMAA.
| Single Filer MAGI | Part B Total (Monthly, Per Person) | Part D Surcharge (Monthly, Per Person) | Annual Surcharge Only (Per Person) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $170,000 (2025 salary year) | $405.80 | $37.50 | $2,884.80 |
| $90,000 (2026 retirement estimate) | $202.90 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
His $2,884.80 a year depends on which income Social Security uses.
SSA-44 Accepts an Estimate Before the Tax Return Exists
He doesn’t have to wait for his 2026 tax return, but Form SSA-44 is used after Social Security has notified him that IRMAA applies. Once that happens, his work stoppage lets him report an estimated MAGI for the more recent year instead of waiting for the tax return to exist. If the lower income continues, the estimate can carry into the next premium year too. He can submit the request online, by fax or mail, or make an appointment with Social Security.
Respond Before the Higher Premium Starts
SSA begins its annual IRMAA verification process in the fall. Once Social Security tells him it plans to charge IRMAA, he can request a new determination using the $90,000 estimate rather than waiting for his completed 2026 return. Acting promptly gives SSA a chance to correct the premium before higher withholding begins (IRMAA is one of several Medicare surcharges that silently reduce retirement cash flow, and we covered the rest in a free guide to Medicare’s hidden bills).
Only Eight Events Qualify for a Recalculation
SSA accepts these qualifying events: Marriage, divorce or annulment, death of a spouse, work stoppage, work reduction, loss of income-producing property, loss or reduction of pension income, or certain employer settlement payments.
A voluntary Roth conversion or a one-time investment gain does not qualify, even if income falls again the next year. That works the other way too. A Roth conversion in late 2026 increases the very estimate he files. At $90,000, he has about $19,000 of room under the 2026 first-tier line before any conversion pushes him back into a surcharge. Once CMS publishes the 2027 table, check his room against those numbers.
What to Send This Month
- Form SSA-44 listing work stoppage as the event, with proof such as an employer letter confirming his last day of work.
- Estimated 2026 MAGI, built from his final paychecks, pension, taxable Social Security benefits, interest, including municipal bond interest, and any planned IRA withdrawals. SSA later verifies estimates against IRS data, so an estimate that is too low can produce a retroactive adjustment.
- A second estimate for 2027 if his income will change again, for example when required distributions or a pension begin. If he gives no second estimate, SSA generally carries the first estimate forward for the next premium year.
Social Security’s 2027 raise, currently projected at about 3.5%, will be announced in mid-October. Part B pricing follows in November, and the January deposit is the first one to show both. Because of the two-year lookback, Medicare is slow to notice a drop in income. If he files while the lower income is still an estimate, the correction can reach Medicare before the higher premium reaches his January check.
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Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
