Evidence of Huge Holiday Sales
Gallup data confirms what Comscore and National Retail Federation research have already hinted. Holiday sales in 2011 may rise to levels that were hardly dreamed of just months ago. This will encourage economists to forecast higher GDP, and perhaps a…
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In its latest report:
Gallup’s final update on expected holiday spending indicates 2011 will be a stronger year than 2010. Currently, Americans estimate they will spend $756 on gifts this year, up from $686 in December 2010. This reinforces the finding from November, which also showed higher estimates for 2011 than for 2010. The initial October estimate suggested spending would be similar to last year.
It is still a puzzle. Consumer debt was supposed to continue to saddle American consumers. Fears of loss of home equity as the real estate market continues to fall were supposed to spread more worry about underwater mortgages. Unemployment has not improved enough to show an economy that has begun to add jobs at rapid rates. Nonetheless, Americans may set a holiday spending record, at least in rising sectors like e-commerce.
Economists are left to guess what the shopping spree means for the fourth quarter and next year. Consumer expenditures are such a large part of GDP that the final period of the year could show a 3% or better improvement.
The economy has improved for the time being. That trend could change as quickly as its came.
Methodology: Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 15 to 18, 2011, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.
McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.
His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.
A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.
TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.
McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.