Retail

Making Heads or Tails out of Groupon Earnings

Thursday after the markets closed, Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) reported its fourth-quarter financial results as $0.06 in earnings per share (EPS) and $925.4 million in revenue. That was against Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of $0.03 in EPS on revenue of $908.38 million. In the same period or the previous year, it reported EPS of $0.04 and $768.45 million in revenue.

The company gave guidance for the first quarter of 2015. Groupon expects revenue between $790 million and $840 million, as well as EPS between $0.00 and $0.02. The consensus estimates are $0.03 in EPS and $856.14 million in revenue. The question is whether this weak guidance will affect the share price Friday.

Gross billings, which reflect the total dollar value of customer purchases of goods and services, increased 31% globally to $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $1.6 billion in the same period of the previous year.

At the end of the fourth quarter, on average, active deals totaled approximately 370,000 globally, up 70,000 sequentially. North American active deals increased to more than 135,000 for the fourth quarter. Active customers grew 23% year-over-year to 53.9 million at the end of December. North America comprised 24.1 million of all active customers.

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During the fourth quarter 2014, Groupon repurchased 1.15 million shares at an average price of $7.04 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of $8.1 million. Under its August 2013 share repurchase authorization, the company is authorized to repurchase up to an additional $101.5 million of common stock.

Eric Lefkofsky, CEO of Groupon, said:

2014 was a transformational year for Groupon, as we made significant progress in our strategy to become the world’s leading local commerce destination. Global billings hit their highest level ever in the quarter, growing more than 30%, driven in part by our reignited North America Local business. We now turn our attention to further building out our marketplace to ensure that our more than 260 million subscribers have an amazing experience every time they use Groupon.

Sterne Agee’s Arvind Bhatia reiterated a Buy rating and a $12 price target. In Sterne Agee’s report, the firm mentioned that one of the key drivers of the recent acceleration in North America Local has been the continued stability in the email business while the non-email business continues to grow well. Groupon’s management is currently targeting growth in the email business and it seems confident that the company can avoid the headwinds. Sterne Agee thinks this will be key to the stock, that North America Local growth has to remain strong for the stock to work.

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Shares of Groupon closed Thursday down 1.6% at $7.46. In early trading Friday, shares were up more than 8% to $8.02. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $8.61 and a 52-week trading range of $5.18 to $10.88.

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