The steady pace of technological developments continues to change the outlook on work. Some developments lead to optimism and others to fear, as the future of labor — if nothing else — will be vastly different than it is today.
The proliferation of automated tasks over the last three decades — commonly referred to as the Digital Revolution — led to a slight increase in the number of jobs, not mass joblessness as was feared. Yet massive changes in the way work is done preceded that outcome. Entire industries that adopted automated processed such as the use of industrial robots and computing technologies, for example, shed massive numbers of workers. This trend is far from over.
At least 70% of tasks performed in approximately 25% of jobs in the United States (36 million) could soon be substituted by automated techniques, according to a new report by the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program. These 36 million jobs are the most vulnerable to automation. Almost all occupations will be automated to some degree.
The intensity of the effects will be highest in industries that require predictable tasks. According to Brookings, office administration, production, transportation, and food preparation occupations will be most vulnerable to automation.
The risk posed by automation to job security varies across regions, states, and cities. 24/7 Wall St. reviewed metropolitan area labor markets to find those that are most vulnerable to automation. We used data published this January in the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program.
Click here to see the cities at the greatest risk of automation.
Click here to see our detailed findings and full methodology.
Source: A. Balet / Wikimedia Commons
50. Yakima, WA
> Automatable share of work: 49.4% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 17.6%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 9.2%
> Population: 250,193
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Source: benkrut / Getty Images
49. Oshkosh-Neenah, WI
> Automatable share of work: 49.4% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 29.5%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 22.5%
> Population: 170,414
Source: TriciaDaniel / Getty Images
48. College Station-Bryan, TX
> Automatable share of work: 49.4% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 36.1%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 8.0%
> Population: 258,860
Source: Jeff Wood / Wikimedia Commons
47. St. Cloud, MN
> Automatable share of work: 49.4% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 29.0%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 14.4%
> Population: 197,759
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Source: Cindy Funk / Wikimedia Commons
46. Springfield, OH
> Automatable share of work: 49.4% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 20.1%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 16.0%
> Population: 134,557
Source: pasa / Flickr
45. Longview, TX
> Automatable share of work: 49.5% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 18.2%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 9.8%
> Population: 217,481
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Source: formulanone / Flickr
44. Salisbury, MD-DE
> Automatable share of work: 49.5% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 27.8%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 7.6%
> Population: 405,853
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Source: toddmedia / Getty Images
43. Tuscaloosa, AL
> Automatable share of work: 49.5% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 29.4%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 13.1%
> Population: 242,279
Source: 19187447@N00 / Flickr
42. Modesto, CA
> Automatable share of work: 49.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 17.5%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 12.3%
> Population: 547,899
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Source: Ron Reiring / Wikimedia Commons
41. Decatur, IL
> Automatable share of work: 49.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 23.2%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 16.5%
> Population: 105,801
Source: thyegn / Getty Images
40. Longview, WA
> Automatable share of work: 49.7% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 17.3%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 16.5%
> Population: 106,910
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Source: benkrut / Getty Images
39. Canton-Massillon, OH
> Automatable share of work: 49.7% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 21.6%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 18.6%
> Population: 399,927
Source: Ron Johnson / Wikimedia Commons
38. Merced, CA
> Automatable share of work: 49.7% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 13.4%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 11.0%
> Population: 272,673
Source: DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
37. Decatur, AL
> Automatable share of work: 49.8% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 18.5%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 20.6%
> Population: 151,867
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Source: BOB WESTON / Getty Images
36. Bowling Green, KY
> Automatable share of work: 49.8% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 23.9%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 20.4%
> Population: 178,474
Source: bpperry / Getty Images
35. Lewiston, ID-WA
> Automatable share of work: 49.9% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 23.8%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 14.1%
> Population: 62,921
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Source: kenlund / Flickr
34. Danville, IL
> Automatable share of work: 50.0% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 16.8%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 13.9%
> Population: 77,909
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Source: formulanone / Flickr
33. Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH
> Automatable share of work: 50.0% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 16.7%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 11.5%
> Population: 119,664
Source: jjneff / Getty Images
32. Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville, AL
> Automatable share of work: 50.1% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 19.3%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 21.3%
> Population: 114,728
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Source: Flutter_97321 / Getty Images
31. Albany, OR
> Automatable share of work: 50.1% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 17.3%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 16.1%
> Population: 125,047
Source: Rodrigo A. Rodriguez Fuentes / Getty Images
30. Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN
> Automatable share of work: 50.1% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 36.6%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 16.9%
> Population: 218,769
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Source: greeleygov / Flickr
29. Greeley, CO
> Automatable share of work: 50.1% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 27.5%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 9.6%
> Population: 304,633
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Source: SEASTOCK / Getty Images
28. Lebanon, PA
> Automatable share of work: 50.1% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 22.2%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 14.8%
> Population: 139,754
Source: Bmag32 (Uploads) / Wikimedia Commons
27. Cleveland, TN
> Automatable share of work: 50.1% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 20.5%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 21.2%
> Population: 123,935
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Source: Michael-Tatman / Getty Images
26. Wausau, WI
> Automatable share of work: 50.1% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 25.8%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 20.7%
> Population: 135,732
Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
25. Gainesville, GA
> Automatable share of work: 50.2% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 26.3%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 17.6%
> Population: 199,335
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Source: chapin31 / Getty Images
24. Columbus, IN
> Automatable share of work: 50.3% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 35.1%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 36.4%
> Population: 82,040
Source: texasbackroads / Flickr
23. Mansfield, OH
> Automatable share of work: 50.4% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 18.8%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 20.7%
> Population: 120,589
Source: russfeld / Flickr
22. Auburn-Opelika, AL
> Automatable share of work: 50.5% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 33.4%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 14.2%
> Population: 161,604
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Source: pasa / Flickr
21. Terre Haute, IN
> Automatable share of work: 50.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 19.3%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 16.3%
> Population: 165,798
Source: Oralleff / Getty Images
20. Sheboygan, WI
> Automatable share of work: 50.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 25.2%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 31.0%
> Population: 115,344
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Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
19. Muskegon, MI
> Automatable share of work: 50.7% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 19.4%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 28.5%
> Population: 173,693
Source: Michael Munster / Getty Images
18. Joplin, MO
> Automatable share of work: 50.7% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 22.7%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 19.3%
> Population: 178,507
Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
17. Lima, OH
> Automatable share of work: 50.8% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 19.7%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 17.6%
> Population: 103,198
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Source: LarryKnupp / Getty Images
16. St. Joseph, MO-KS
> Automatable share of work: 50.9% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 18.8%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 19.6%
> Population: 127,092
Source: nashvillecorps / Flickr
15. Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
> Automatable share of work: 50.9% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 22.2%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 15.0%
> Population: 147,038
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Source: helivideo / Getty Images
14. Odessa, TX
> Automatable share of work: 50.9% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 13.9%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 5.4%
> Population: 157,087
Source: Daniel Schwen / Wikimedia Commons
13. Michigan City-La Porte, IN
> Automatable share of work: 51.0% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 16.9%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 21.6%
> Population: 110,029
Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
12. Morristown, TN
> Automatable share of work: 51.3% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 14.9%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 21.9%
> Population: 118,081
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Source: DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
11. Fort Smith, AR-OK
> Automatable share of work: 51.5% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 18.1%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 16.0%
> Population: 282,086
Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
10. Gadsden, AL
> Automatable share of work: 51.5% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 19.3%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 17.4%
> Population: 102,755
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Source: dustin77a / Getty Images
9. Sioux City, IA-NE-SD
> Automatable share of work: 51.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 22.1%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 21.2%
> Population: 169,131
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Source: zrfphoto / Getty Images
8. Gettysburg, PA
> Automatable share of work: 51.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 22.9%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 15.1%
> Population: 102,336
Source: sshepard / Getty Images
7. Harrisonburg, VA
> Automatable share of work: 52.0% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 29.0%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 15.3%
> Population: 134,442
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Source: Ildar Sagdejev (Specious) / Wikimedia Commons
6. Burlington, NC
> Automatable share of work: 52.2% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 23.4%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 18.6%
> Population: 162,391
Source: kenlund / Flickr
5. Grand Island, NE
> Automatable share of work: 52.4% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 23.0%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 17.3%
> Population: 85,936
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Source: washuotaku / Flickr
4. Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
> Automatable share of work: 52.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 17.9%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 27.2%
> Population: 366,534
Source: kenlund / Flickr
3. Elkhart-Goshen, IN
> Automatable share of work: 54.6% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 20.2%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 37.5%
> Population: 205,032
Source: davidwilson1949 / Flickr
2. Kokomo, IN
> Automatable share of work: 54.7% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 20.4%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 28.1%
> Population: 82,363
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Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
1. Dalton, GA
> Automatable share of work: 56.0% of tasks
> Percent of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree: 13.5%
> Civilians employed in manufacturing: 42.0%
> Population: 144,440
Detailed Findings
While no labor market will be spared the effects of automation in the coming decades, manufacturing and agricultural industries are considerably more vulnerable than others. In turn, local economies with long histories and ongoing specialization in these industries will be most vulnerable to changes brought on by automation.
Production, transportation, and construction-installation occupations are more heavily concentrated in areas that have above average projected automation exposure. In 44 of the 50 metro areas on this list, the percentage of workers employed in the manufacturing sector, for example, exceeds the national average share of 10.1%.
Based on the potential of being automated, relatively safe jobs include health care, personal services, and education occupations. No metro area on this list consists of above-average shares of professional, scientific, and management sector jobs.
Methodology
To identify the metro job markets at the greatest risk of automation, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data published this January in the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program. The percentage of adults with at least a bachelor’s degree, the percentage of civilians employed in manufacturing jobs, and the population of each metropolitan area came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 American Community Survey.
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