Technology

Despite Headwinds, Analysts See Even Larger Facebook Upside Into 2016

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) reported its first-quarter financial results Wednesday after the markets closed, and now analyst calls have poured in for this social media giant. 24/7 Wall St has briefly looked at earnings and given summary details for each analyst call that it has seen.

As for a brief summary of the earnings, the leader of social media posted $0.42 in adjusted earnings per share and revenue of $3.54 billion, up 42%. Thomson Reuters had consensus estimates set at $0.40 per share and revenue of $3.56 billion. Facebook’s non-GAAP operating margin fell to 52% in the first quarter from the 57% reported a year ago.

Sterne Agee’s Arvind Bhatia reiterated Facebook’s Buy rating and raised the price target to $92 from $85. Foreign exchange (FX) headwinds mask the upside for Facebook. The first quarter of 2015 was essentially in line, but user metrics, including reach and engagement, exceeded expectations. Excluding the impact of FX (which was worse than expected), revenue would have been ahead of the consensus estimate. One major point that Sterne Agee noted was that it believes very few companies in the world today have the monetization opportunity ahead that Facebook does. Facebook’s user base of 1.44 billion, WhatsApp’s 800 million, FB Messenger’s 600 million and Instagram’s over 300 million users provide a long runway for growth and multiple ways to monetize.

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Credit Suisse’s John Edwards reiterated an Outperform rating for Facebook with a $106 price target. The brokerage firm also has Facebook listed as one of its top picks for 2015. Credit Suisse explained its favorable valuation in its report:

Valuation: Our Discounted cash flow-based price target remains unchanged at $106, based on a 10.5% weighted average cost of capital and 3% terminal growth rate.

Investment Case: In an earnings report of relatively few surprises, we highlight what we believe is an acceleration in the FX neutral growth rate for Facebook’s advertising revenue in Europe as a key source of outperformance. This is likely due to rising adoption of ad units which have already gained wide adoption in North America.

Wells Fargo has an Overweight rating for Facebook and it set its valuation range of $88 to $90. The valuation range reflects a 17.8-times EV-to-EBITDA multiple on the 2016 fiscal year, which represents 29% year-over-year growth. The bank of Warren Buffett believes that Facebook’s leadership position, improving mobile monetization, growth profile and long-term potential merit a premium valuation. Risks to Wells Fargo’s valuation include slowing user growth, competition for advertising dollars and regulatory risk.

As a result, the firm described its investment thesis:

We view the evolution of social platforms as the most significant digital marketing development since the emergence of search, and believe Facebook’s audience scale, targeting capabilities, and social connectivity offer opportunity for marketers across the category, size, and regional spectrum. In short, we view marketer participation on the Facebook platform as compulsory, and expect Facebook to be the leading share beneficiary of funds flowing social and mobile ad platforms.

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Merrill Lynch’s Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price objective to $95 from $92. In Facebook’s most recent earnings report, payments revenue missed, but at less than 10% of total revenue, it is not a lingering issue. EPS beat on lower expenses and operating margins that came in at 52%. Management narrowed its 2015 adjusted expense growth outlook to 50% to 60% from 50% to 65%, which could provide optimism for future declines.

Other notable points from the report were that Video increased to an impressive 4 billion views a day, note that YouTube reported 4 billion per day a few quarters ago. Ultimately video helped drive the daily active mobiles/monthly active users ratio to a new high of 65%. Monthly active users were slightly ahead at 1.441 billion, compared to the 1.438 billion estimate, and mobile daily active users were up 31% to 798 million, compared to the 785 million estimate. WhatsApp increased to 800 million monthly users, and messaging is at 600 million.

Merrill Lynch further detailed in its report:

We are slightly lowering our 2015E revenue by 0.3% to $16.71 billion from $16.76 billion to reflect FX and lower Payments revenue, but raising non-GAAP EPS to $2.00 from $1.97. We are raising 2016E EPS, a key valuation metric, by 3% to $2.65 from $2.57. We estimate 37% and 35% ad revenue growth in 2015 and 2016 (less FX pressure in 2016). Our 2015 expense growth estimate is 50%, at the low end of the guidance range.

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Canaccord Genuity has a Buy rating, but the firm lowered its price target to $80 from $87. According to Canaccord Genuity’s analyst Michael Graham:

Facebook’s first quarter results continued to demonstrate the company’s well-rounded growth story, with solid user growth coupled with 49% ex-FX revenue growth. We continue to think Facebook’s business will demonstrate good momentum this year driven by ad pricing, ad product mix, and monetization of incremental properties (Instagram, Messenger, etc). We believe the stock is likely to reflect this momentum as the valuation remains reasonable. Longer term, the already-high profitability of the company may limit the ability for EPS growth to outpace revenue growth.

Janney Capital Markets reiterated a Neutral rating for Facebook with an $80 fair value target. Facebook reported a roughly in-line quarter against tough FX and increasingly high street expectations. Janney believes that mobile and U.S. pricing and engagement remain strong, while the company still has an abundance of long-term growth opportunities ahead. However, there is a longer monetization ramp that will moderate near-term upside potential. The Neutral rating also implies the firm’s belief that Facebook will need to grow into its higher multiple, considering growth naturally decelerates against elevated expectations.

Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating with a $100 price target. The firm detailed the reasoning behind this in its report:

Our $100 price target is unchanged following largely in-line first quarter results. While management narrowed the high end of 2015 expense guidance, we still believe expense guidance is conservative, given the magnitude of the margin beat in 2014. First quarter ad revenue +46% year-over-year (+55% ex FX), in-line with Opco/Street, driven by mobile and better performing Newsfeed ads. Management guided to a greater currency impact in second quarter versus first quarter, as the company does not hedge FX. Facebook continues to slowly roll out Instagram and video ads in the US, suggesting second half momentum. Target based on 30x 2016 estimated non-GAAP EPS + $23 billion valuation for Instagram and $19 billion for WhatsApp.

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A couple other analysts weighed in on Facebook as well:

  • Brean Capital reiterated a Buy rating and raised its target to $100 from $96.
  • RBC Capital Markets kept its Outperform rating and raised its target to $105 from $88.

The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $92.98, implying upside of 11.5% from current prices.

Shares of Facebook were trading down 0.9% at $83.91 midday Thursday, in a 52-week trading range of $54.66 to $86.07.

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