eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) reported its earnings Wednesday after the markets closed, and now analysts are weighing in on the future of eBay and what these earnings mean for its spin-off of PayPal. 24/7 Wall St. has briefly looked at earnings and given summary details for each analyst call that we have seen.
Source: courtesy of ebay
The company reported its first-quarter financial results Wednesday as $0.77 in earnings per share (EPS) on $4.45 billion in revenue, compared to Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of $0.70 in EPS on $4.42 billion in revenue. The first quarter from last year had $0.70 in EPS and $4.26 billion in revenue.
For the full year, the company expects EPS in the range of $3.05 to $3.15 and revenues in the range of $18.35 billion to $18.85 billion. The consensus estimates are $3.10 in EPS and $18.96 billion in revenue.
Wells Fargo reiterated an Outperform rating and updated its valuation range to $61 to $63.
According to the firm, eBay reported a slight upside surprise, which was driven by solid PayPal results, a stabilization in Marketplaces gross merchandise value (GMV) and better-than-expected margins in both PayPal and Marketplaces. The company laid out some fairly dramatic changes for Marketplaces and these moves could involve some heavy lifting, but ultimately they should help eBay refocus on its core strengths and differentiate the offering.
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Considering consumers’ emerging preference for niche marketplaces in categories like apparel, Wells Fargo believes that there is an argument to further fragment the platform. The brokerage firm still sees modest upside potential to its sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) value of $66. Estimates for EPS change to $0.72 from $0.66 in the third quarter, $3.11 from $3.12 in the 2015 fiscal year, and $3.38 from $3.37 in the 2016 fiscal year.
Wells Fargo noted a few positives in the report: PayPal’s revenue growth, Marketplaces GMV ex-FX, Marketplace margin and PayPal’s segment margin. However, the analyst firm also pointed out what it saw wrong in the report: Marketplace active user growth, foreign exchange (FX) pressures international results and Enterprise same-store sales decelerated again.
Merrill Lynch maintained its Buy rating with a price target of $66. The valuation is attractive versus its Internet peers within the firm’s SOTP valuation framework. PayPal trends remain strong and new marketing management could increase optimism on the business. Another reason behind this valuation was that easy eBay Marketplace comps are coming; think, Stubhub, security breach and Google.
The brokerage firm detailed in its report:
PayPal revenue of $2.10 billion was modestly better than our estimate with a 3.43% take rate above our 3.33% likely aided by FX hedging gains. Marketplace users increased 8.2% year over year vs. 10.6% in the fourth quarter, and units sold growth was up 9.0% year over year vs. 8.4% year over year in the fourth quarter. Marketplace margins were down 50 basis points year over year to 39.2%. PayPal active accounts increased 11.2% year over year vs. 13.3% year over year in the fourth quarter, and PayPal operating margins decreased 40 basis points year over year to 25.3. While comps get easier in the second quarter, it may take a few quarters to re-invigorate growth given lower marketing spend.
As a result, Merrill Lynch lowered its 2015 revenue estimates to $18.75 billion from $18.95 billion due to FX and the firm increased its EPS estimate by $0.02 to $3.13.
Janney Capital Markets reiterated a Buy rating for eBay with a fair value estimate of $61, despite FX and Marketplace headwinds rather than the SOTP valuation. The Buy rating is based on the PayPal spin-off in the second half of 2015 and the firm’s estimate that SOTP for both assets is in the $56 to $66 range. The first quarter was better than expected, despite FX and Marketplace headwinds with EPS upside. Marketplace volume trends decelerated in the United States but appear to be stabilizing while PayPal volume growth off eBay remains robust. The 2015 fiscal year EPS guidance was reiterated with first-quarter upside offset by FX.
Canaccord Genuity maintained a Hold rating with a $52 price target. The firm’s analyst, Michael Graham, said in his report:
eBay’s first quarter results were slightly better than expected on more stable performance from Marketplaces as the traffic impact from 2014 Google algorithm changes waned. PayPal results were also consistent. While FX headwinds impact second quarter guidance, we find 2015 guidance reasonable. We continue to expect the stock to remain range-bound until closer to or after the time of the PayPal separation, expected in the third quarter.
From a bullish perspective, Canaccord Genuity saw U.S. GMV above its estimate, as well as the consensus estimate. International GMV would have accelerated on a FX-neutral basis by 7%. At the same time, the total number of payments on PayPal rose roughly 25% year-over-year and usage of PayPal (6.3 payments per account) were both above the firm’s estimates.
In terms of a bearish perspective, Canaccord Genuity saw large FX headwinds contributing to the decline of eBay’s TPV volume, missed Marketplace revenue for the quarter and decreased revenue guidance for the full year.
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Credit Suisse reiterated a Neutral rating for eBay with a target price of $66, up from $62. The firm also updated its 2015 fiscal year EPS estimate to $3.07 from the previous EPS estimate of $3.11. Credit Suisse detailed its analysis in its report:
eBay reported first quarter revenue of $4.45 billion in-line with cons[ensus]. On strength in Payment, the revenue shortfall was from Marketplaces on lower take-rate despite higher-than-expected GMV. Marketplaces segment profit was also below our estimate, but was more than offset by Payments, which benefited from lower OpEx – consolidated segment profit was $1.36 billion vs our $1.28 billion and Adj. EPS was $0.77 vs our $0.69 and consensus $0.70 as eBay repurchased $1 billion of its stock in the first quarter.
The firm also explained its investment case:
While this quarter had little in the way of thesis-changing data points, strength in Payments despite continued FX headwinds provided bottom-line stability in the face of continued restructuring and weakness in Marketplaces.
Shares of eBay were up 3.3% at $58.64 Thursday afternoon, in a 52-week trading range of $46.34 to $60.93. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $59.64.
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