From a note snagged (and hyped) by CNBC’s John Melloy:
Here are [Kuo’s] new forecasts:
- Slashing iPhone shipment estimate for the first quarter 2019 by 20 percent to a range of 38 million to 42 million (previous forecast was range of 47 million to 52 million)
- He estimates 2018 iPhone shipments of 205 million to 210 million.
- 2019 iPhone shipments will decline 5- to 10-percent from 2018 to a range of 188 million to 194 million
The analyst, known for having close ties to Apple suppliers, cites lower demand for the iPhone XR, the new more affordable iPhone.
“The increase in orders of legacy iPhone models cannot offset the decline of XR and XS series shipments because of the low season impact,” he adds.
My take: In my experience, Kuo’s shipment estimates are no better than anyone else’s. I’ve never understood why he gets the big wet kisses his U.S. outlets give him. Here’s how Melloy introduces Kuo in his hed and lede:
The most influential analyst covering Apple just slashed his iPhone shipment estimate by 20%.
Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities, the most widely followed Apple analyst on Wall Street whose calls typically move the stock…
Makes me wonder who is paying whom to run Kuo’s stuff.
See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo?
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