Four things I learned from Apple’s guidance warning

“The only mistake in life is a lesson not learned.” — Albert Einstein

From a review of my reporting last quarter:

• Don’t trust Apple’s guidance. Sure, Steve Jobs used to sandbag investors, guiding low, coming in high, but I thought I could take Tim Cook’s numbers (or his silence) to the bank. Now I know better.
• Don’t be too quick to call FUD. Not all negative reports are created equal. Sometimes there’s good reason to have fear, uncertainty and doubt.
• Case in point: Lumentum’s revised guidance. When Lumentum announced in November that a major supplier (almost certainly Apple) had sharply reduced orders for 3D imaging components, I posted several items about analysts reducing estimates. “Could be a bad sign,” I wrote. But then I gave equal weight to the possibility that Apple had simply switched suppliers.
• Stick to the facts; don’t sugar-coat. Apple investors may prefer reading good news about the company, but I’m not doing anyone any favors by putting my thumb on the scale.

See also:

• Wells Fargo: Apple under pressure after Lumentum cuts
• Goldman Sachs cuts Apple price target on Lumentum news
• What the Apple press missed in Monday’s Lumentum story

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