What to Expect When Dropbox Reports After the Close

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Dropbox Inc. (NASDAQ: DBX) is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter financial results after the markets close on Thursday. The consensus estimates are calling for $0.14 in earnings per share (EPS) and $443.41 million in revenue. The same period of last year reportedly had $0.10 in EPS and $375.9 million in revenue.

It seems that many investors have lost patience with this company. Dropbox was a great unicorn in the past, but persistent issues with turning free subscribers into paying ones were also magnified by subscriber churn, wherein paying subscribers went to other subscription services or they just went to free options.

During the fourth quarter, Normura/Instinet analyst Christopher Eberle upgraded Dropbox to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $25 from $24.

Several key points were obvious from the Nomura/Instinet report:

  1. The stock may be nearing an inflection point after six quarters of revenue deceleration;
  2. An attractive valuation versus peers and historical metrics;
  3. Expect more disclosure from recurring revenue expectations
  4. Expects to see upside to estimates when it reports
  5. Better churn management

Overall, Dropbox stock has underperformed the broad markets with pullback of about 29.5% in the past 52 weeks. In just the past quarter alone, the stock is down close to 5%.

Here’s what a few other analysts had to say about Dropbox ahead of the report:

  • Jefferies has a Hold rating with a $19 price target.
  • William Blair has a Buy rating.
  • Bernstein has an Underperform rating and a $19 target.

Dropbox stock traded up 1.6% to $18.61 Thursday morning, in a 52-week range of $16.08 to $26.20. The consensus price target is $28.50.

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