Having the hottest and best mobile chips around is great, right up until a company loses business in preference to another big chip order. Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) has had issues around its guidance, but now a couple of fresh issues are facing the mobile chip giant. The company appears to have lost another chip order unexpectedly, and a Wall Street analyst has downgraded the company’s stock.

Samsung had already given bad news to Qualcomm in a choice of its chips for the new Galaxy S6 smartphone rather than the Snapdragon. The second hit has come from Chipworks, a consulting firm that identifies which chips and components are inside disassembled mobile devices. The list of chips does not include Qualcomm, despite it having been rumored that the wireless modem chip was going to be in the handset.

The second bit of bad news is from the firm FBR Capital, with a downgrade to Market Perform from Outperform. Qualcomm’s price target was lowered to $72 from $80 as well. One of the issues is the ongoing chip loss impact, with a note that Samsung wants to replace Qualcomm whenever and wherever it can.

Qualcomm was recently featured on a UBS list of favorite equities on its Focus List. Still, the most recent short interest data showed that the number of Qualcomm shares short rose handily. It seems as though the short sellers may be concerned that a design loss might not just be a one-off here — after all, the 19.08 million shares short was the highest short interest since last August.

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Where all of this gets interesting is in the high dividends and buybacks seen from Qualcomm. The company has promised to return high rates of capital to shareholders, but what happens if its design wins are not happening in key smartphone launches ahead?

Things get even more interesting in Qualcomm’s revenue growth, which is expected to be only 3% in 2015 and almost 5% in 2016. With an expected decline in earnings per share to $4.98 expected in 2015 (from $5.27 in 2014), the earnings gain is expected to return to $5.43 per share in 2016.

It seems safe to wonder if Qualcomm’s days of growth have run into more than just a hiccup. So let’s look at both sides of the coin: S&P Capital IQ recently raised its rating to Buy from Hold, yet it kept its 12-month target at $80.

Qualcomm shares were down 0.7% at $67.50 after about two hours of trading on Monday. Its 52-week range is $62.26 to $81.97, and the consensus analyst price target is $76.91.

In the two-year chart from StockCharts below, it might seem as though an overreaction took place recently when the stock hit a 52-week low. Unfortunately, that chart also shows a troubling series of lower highs since its peak last summer.

It may seem unfair on the surface to question whether Qualcomm is losing its edge this soon into the game. The problem is that not just one data point is at work. Investors often get worried when they see a big downgrade after news that has yet to be confirmed. Now try throwing in a rise in the short interest to a seven-month high and a chart with a series of lower highs that has been in place for months. Are longer-term problems brewing here?

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