Qualcomm’s (QCOM) Future Starts To Dim

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“Qualcomm will not be able to take its royalty model further, that’s absolutely clear,” said Dresdner Bank AG analyst Per Lindberg in London, who rates the shares “sell” and expects them to fall as much as 40 percent to $25. From Bloomberg, no less.

As Qualcomm begins its fight with Nokia (NOK) over license fees. there not many people on Wall St. who think it will work out well for the US company. Nokia is asking the ITC to look at how much Qualcomm IP is actually in next-generation cellphones. If it is not as big a chunk as it was a couple of years ago the authorities are likely to insist that the QCOM piece of the pie go down.

U.S. International Trade Commission Judge Paul Luckern will decide Nov. 13 whether three Qualcomm patents are valid and apply to Nokia’s phones. Broadcom (BRCM) has already taken QCOM in front of the ITC with substantial success.

Qualcomm’s next visit to the judge is not likely to go well, either.

Douglas A. McIntyre