The Government's Forecast If Flu Problem Explodes: Two Million Americans Die

Somewhere in the basement of a government warehouse, federal employees with too little to do have come up with estimates of the what the effects of an all-out flu pandemic would be. Like most estimates, these have a significant chance of being wrong. They draw on theoretic models which cannot do much to take into account the most recent advances in science and disease control.

According to the AP, which has gotten hold of documents put together by the federal government and large companies, the country would face devastation. The most important figure in the forecast is the number of people who would die. The information from the news service is “A full-scale pandemic — if it ever comes — could be expected to claim the lives of about 2 percent of those infected, about 2 million Americans.” Ninety million citizens would get sick. The economy would shut down. US economic output could drop 5.5%.

All of the frightening information almost certainly points to a remarkably unlikely case. The government’s ability to partially isolate major diseases geographically has improved since the SARS outbreak six years ago. Flu treatment drugs have become more effective and widely available. The Internet is a far superior way to spread detailed information to tens of millions of people than TV, radio, or newspaper ever were.

The press will deluge the public with reports about “worst case scenarios”. But, scenarios are all they are.

Douglas A. McIntyre