Cars and Drivers

Can Ford Sustain High Profit If Market Share Declines Continue?

Ford Mustang
Source: Ford Motor Co.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) reported second quarter 2015 results before markets opened Tuesday morning. For the quarter, the automaker posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.47 on revenues of $37.3 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.40 on revenues of $35.36 billion. Second-quarter results compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.37 and $35.34 billion in revenues.

The consensus analysts’ estimate for third quarter EPS is $0.47 on revenues of $35.01 billion. For the full-year the consensus estimates call for $1.59 in EPS and revenues of $138.4 billion.

North American sales totaled $23.3 billion and pre-tax profit came to $2.6 billion, an amount Ford said is a record for the company for any quarter. Operating margin was 0.5% lower than in the second-quarter of 2014 at 11.1%. Wholesale volume rose by 56,000 units to 816,000.

In the company’s other regions revenues were down year-over-year across the board and sales were down in all regions except Europe and profits rose the South America and Asia Pacific regions. Revenue declines were attributed to the strong dollar.

Global wholesale volumes rose by 35,000 units to 1.696 million, virtually all the result of North American sales

The company said that market share was a “partial offset” to North American strength due to “lower availability” of the new F-150 pickup.

Ford maintained its full-year pre-tax profit guidance of $8.5 to $9.5 billion. Third-quarter production volumes are forecast at 1.68 million units, up 190,000 compared with the year-ago quarter and down slightly sequentially.

North American market share dipped from 15.3% in the second quarter of 2014 to 15% and from 15.3% in the first half of 2014 to 14.9% in the first half of this year.

Bob Shanks, Ford’s CFO, said:

This is one of the strongest quarters in our recent history with our best Automotive quarterly profit since 2000, record any-quarter profit in North America and record second quarter profit in Asia Pacific. We have four more global vehicle launches this year to complete the 16 planned and we’re on track to deliver great results for the rest of the year.

Analysts had lowered their profit expectations by 3 cents a share over the past three months, so that makes Ford’s profit beat appear to be stronger than it is. And while profits were strong, the loss of market share could force the company to offer more promotional pricing which will cut into both revenues and profits.

Ford’s shares traded up about 2.4% in pre-market trading at $14.90 after closing at $14.55 on Monday, in a 52-week range of $13.26 to $17.87. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $17.10 before today’s report.

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