Only Electric Cars to Be Sold in India by 2030, Maybe

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India, the large cities of which are among the most polluted in the world, plans to sell only electric cars by 2030. It is among a small set of large things which might sharply cut air pollution which endangers the health of tens of millions of people in its large cities. The goal, however, is one the government understands it may not meet and calls it “aspirational”.

According to “India Energy”, an affiliate of the central government:

Let us take EV first, which could be a game changer in a public transport-deficient and private transport dependent country whose appetite for vehicles is increasing at a fast pace. India has set an ambitious target for the adoption of EV. A Government-led initiative – the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan – targets annual sales of 6-7 million EV/Hybrid vehicles by 2020. There is an ambition, that by 2030, all vehicles sold in India may be electric-powered. This is an aspirational target. Ultimately the logic of markets will prevail. If battery costs (battery costs comprise nearly a third of the cost of an electric car) come down, the adoption of EV would zoom. It is less known that decline in battery cost has so far beaten the decline in SPV. There are several studies that indicate that lifecycle cost of an electric car in India would be the same as that of an internal combustion (IC) one by 2022 (LBNL).

The goal faces at least two major hurdles. The first is whether manufacturers can produce and market enough EVs by 2030. The other is whether consumers will buy them. This, in turn, will rely on the price of the cars. In some countries. the governments offer tax credits. This currently includes the United States.