The Unusual Suspects For The Week Ahead (ANF, APC, BP, BIDU, FDO, GSK, GS, LGF, NANO, NBG, RIMM, AAPL, VVUS, WMT, WEN)

This week’s cast of characters in the UNUSUAL SUSPECTS of stocks to watch does not include any earnings previews.  Those earnings have been given a separate calendar posted this morning.  Our batch of stocks with options activity, ongoing news, follow-on trading and more to watch going into next week includes Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC), BP plc (NYSE: BP), Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU), Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO), GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF), Nanometrics Inc. (NASDAQ: NANO), National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG), Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE: WEN).  We have compiled what the news or that catalyst is on each as well as trading color and additional background data where applicable.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) may finally be turning the corner again its chart has now busted the endless downward staircase as shares had gone from $50 in April to about $30 by the end of June.  Shares rose about 15% this last week on word that same-store sales grew a sharp 9% versus the almost 3% expected. The company’s total sales for the month rose 23% to $277.3 million.  The chart is still too fresh for a total continued reversal of losses, but it seems that a floor has been put in for anything resembling a static market.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) moved 17.5% in just the last three trading sessions ($38.64 close Tuesday to $45.41 close Friday) of this last week after it told BP plc (NYSE: BP) to go to hell over its $272 million oil cleanup bill.  Anadarko believes BP’s reckless handling of the deepwater operation and its insistence on doing things its way should exempt its liabilities.  The total move for Anadarko this last week was almost 20% and BP’s move this last week was 16%.  Any failure to have a cap in the well could play against these moves.

Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is going to be more volatile once again now that Google ended up getting its license approved in mainland China again. What is interesting is the news on Friday had shares down over 6% in the pre-market trading, but the stock never opened that low and only closed down 1.7% at $71.20.  The company has made several advances over Google in the months since the problem of China’ policies conflicting with Google’s policies, and this one held up better than many might have expected.  Despite the negative close, Baidu was listed as the #1 chart in the IBD 100 this weekend.

Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) appears to have been the worst of the S&P 500 this last week.  The dollar store met earnings but guidance gave some investors pause.  Shares were at $39.44 before earnings and closed the week out at $36.00 and this is now down 14% from the $42.07 high, making this the most-off of the public dollar store chains out there.

GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK) has an FDA advisory panel this coming week on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the safety of its diabetes drug Avandia.  The controversial vote will be larger than normal and will determine whether Avandia should remain on the market in the U.S. because of possible heart risks associated with the drug.  Individuals in the FDA have already been cautious on this in recent days.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) will be a stock to watch as a sector proxy stock IF the Fin-Reg vote comes about.  The financial reform bill could go to the Senate for a vote this coming week as Congress returns from recess.  There have been many hurdles along the way to this point, and it is easy to see the possibility of more changes to the bill and more delays until the real vote in the Senate even though the House of Representatives passed the bill.  Meredith Whitney also stung Goldman Sachs by making her targets among the lowest on Wall Street this last week.

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) took a turn for the stranger on Friday.  An SEC filing showed that it and Carl Icahn have agreed to start working together on potential acquisitions rather than fight against each other.  The problem is that this could mean the Carl Icahn bid goes away.  Sometimes good news is not really good news.  The verdict is still out here and the move of a mere 1.2% to $6.84 probably highlights the coin-toss mentality even further.

Nanometrics Inc. (NASDAQ: NANO) is not exactly the most recognized stock out there, but this may be the new push and pull stock for day traders this coming week.  Oppenheimer killed the stock with a downgrade to PERFORM this week, and shares fell 20% on the concerns highlighted in the report.  But then the company came out and reaffirmed its 2010 and 2011 targets in retort.  Shares closed up 11.7% at $9.71 on about 6-times normal volume Friday after its retort.  As proof of its volatility, its 52-week trading range is $2.49 to $14.06.

National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) will again be a focal stock as the investor’s and trader’s voting proxy for Greece.  The nation of Greece is scheduled to sell its first government treasury bills since accepting the bailout in May.  After solid bond offerings in Spain and Portugal and elsewhere this last week, it is expected that this sale will go off without much problem.  Again, this is a bill auction, so maturities are short.

Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) has been a whipping boy in the smartphone sector now as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google have taken away all of its Thunder because of the hot iPhone and Droid smartphones.  But suddenly patent law via its old enemy NTP, which it settled all claims with for $612.5 million in 2006, is now going after patent infringement against all of RIM’s competitors.  Google, Apple, Microsoft, Motorola, HTC, LG and others are now all targeted.  In the most extreme outcome, that could leave RIM’s Blackberry as the only licensed and legal smartphone on the market in America.  The 7.8% gain to $53.33 is a tell that perhaps the worst is behind RIM now that its shares have seen a low down even under $47.50 versus a 52-week peak of about $88 and a peak of almost $150 in June 2008.  The follow-on action will need to be watched.

VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) has become quite the controversial stock ahead of its July 15 FDA advisory committee review on Qnexa for weight loss.  Friday came a downgrade to Market Perform from Rodman & Renshaw, but this week came a call from Wedbush for the stock to double as well.  This controversy seems to be on safety versus the obvious benefits and robust results of the drug.  Shares actually closed up over 20% on the week and the July Put and Call options trading is going through the roof.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is one to watch.  This weekend’s edition of Barron’s called the stock undervalued and at a discount to peers. Its article called “Load Up The Shopping Cart!” says exactly its stance on the low-price retail behemoth and it noted a $65 price target from Citigroup.  Despite a recent change in the ranks, management’s job so far has been extremely lackluster by ANY metric.  If Monday morning is static, that could have have shares up close to 2%.

Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE: WEN) is another of our recent picks for ‘stocks which could still double’ and is going to be on to watch this week.  Shares were up an abnormal 6% on Friday without any unusual share volume in trading of the common stock.  There may have been an options rolling trade to account for this, but there was unusual options trading in July, August, and November expiration dates in the $5 CALLS.  This one is speculated by some to be a go-private target, but that remains hearsay and speculation at this point.

Again, the earnings on deck for this week have not been included.  That full earnings calendar for next week is here.  Have a great trading week ahead!

JON C. OGG