Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon Downgrades Nvidia After Jensen Huang's Exit

Stacy Rasgon, managing director and senior analyst at Bernstein, downgraded Nvidia after covering the stock through its entire AI-driven run. His reasoning centers on two compounding risks: who inside Nvidia will have the authority and vision to sign off on the company's next major architecture bet, and how open government investigations into the chipmaker's business practices will ultimately resolve.

On the revenue exposure question, direct China sales represent only about 8% of Nvidia's revenue. Rasgon flags that the more complicated smuggling risk sits inside the Taiwan customer bloc, making it harder to quantify and harder for management to defend cleanly on an earnings call.

Broadcom has guided data-center revenue to $115 billion in 2027, and orders from OpenAI, Meta, and Google, which is developing its own TPUs, are already spreading across multiple vendors.

Interim CEO Colette Kress faces Nvidia's upcoming earnings report under conditions that leave almost no room for a stumble. Rasgon says the report has to be flawless, with investors scrutinizing talent retention inside the company and any vendor financing arrangements that could signal stress in the demand pipeline. The post-Jensen era at Nvidia is only just beginning, and the market has not yet settled on what it is worth.