Amazon’s AI spending is settling a debate between the bulls and the bears. Amazon Web Services (AWS) CEO Matt Garman spent Monday on Bloomberg Technology arguing that AWS’s growth is only getting started. He then went to X and quantified it in a way that undercuts every bear case that AI demand is topping out. “Much of our capacity is already spoken for through 2027 and into 2028, and demand still significantly outstrips supply,” Garman wrote. “We’re going to keep building to keep up with what customers are asking for.”
That single promise reframes the debate over hyperscaler capex. Garman is telling the market that AWS has already booked its next two years of infrastructure, which is why the company is comfortable spending at a historic pace.
The Numbers Behind the Quote
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) reported Q2 2026 AWS revenue of $42.232 billion, up 37% year-over-year, which management flagged as the fastest growth in 18 quarters. AWS Q2 operating margin came in at 39.4%, and capital expenditures reached $54.208 billion in the quarter, a 68.44% year-over-year jump.
CEO Andy Jassy sized the AI stack directly, stating: “AWS is booming, growing 36.7% year-over-year in Q2, our fastest growth in 18 quarters, and our AI and Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion.” Both are growing at triple-digit rates. AWS chief Garman also flagged a large shift from training to inference workloads, the actual usage of models, which tends to produce sticky, recurring compute demand rather than one-off training bursts.
UBS estimates AWS growth will accelerate to 48% next year as Trainium scales with some help from OpenAI. Prediction markets are echoing the bullish buildout thesis: Polymarket traders assign a 96.3% probability that Amazon’s 2026 capex clears $190 billion. Shares have rallied 20.1% in the past five trading sessions.
The Suppliers Locked Into the Buildout
If AWS capacity through 2028 is committed, the merchant silicon and interconnect vendors feeding those data centers have equally visible order books.
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) posted Q1 FY2027 revenue of $2.418 billion, up 28% year over year, with data center contributing $1.833 billion, or 76% of the total pie. CEO Matt Murphy told investors, “We are seeing exceptional AI-related bookings, and as a result, we are significantly raising Marvell’s revenue outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028.” Marvell shares climbed 14.33% on August 4 as the AWS quote circulated.
Astera Labs (NASDAQ:ALAB), which sells connectivity silicon for scale-up AI racks, reported Q1 revenue of $308.4 million, up 93.4% year-over-year, and guided Q2 to a range of $355 million to $365 million. The stock is up 92.99% year-to-date.
Credo Technology (NASDAQ:CRDO) closed fiscal 2026 with full-year revenue of $1.34 billion, up 205.7%, and guided Q1 FY27 to a range of $465 million to $475 million. CEO Bill Brennan credited a vertically integrated approach that he said enables customers to accelerate cluster time-to-stability, maximize GPU utilization, and reduce data center power costs.
What to watch: whether Q3 AWS bookings and hyperscaler capex commentary from Marvell, Astera, and Credo confirm Garman’s 2028 visibility. If they do, Amazon’s AI spending starts to look less like a leap of faith and more like a supply chain already being claimed years in advance.
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