Canadian Natural Resources Q3 2026: Miss, Then a Buyback Surge

Canadian Natural Resources reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.18 for the third quarter of 2026, missing expectations. Revenue also came in short of estimates, snapping a streak of four consecutive quarters in which the company had beaten EPS expectations.

The culprit was a planned maintenance turnaround at the Horizon oil sands upgrader, which pulled roughly 75,000 barrels per day offline during the quarter. That curtailment pushed Oil Sands production expense to $25.80 per barrel and weighed heavily on both the top and bottom lines. Despite the miss relative to estimates, revenue still climbed 34.4% compared with the same quarter a year earlier, lifted by stronger realized prices across crude oil, NGLs, synthetic crude oil, and natural gas.

The more forward-looking development is what happens now that the turnaround is behind the company. CEO Scott Stauth said the Horizon team completed the work in 28 days, seven days ahead of budget, and that oil sands mining and upgrading production has since been running at approximately 640,000 barrels per day. Management also announced plans to extend turnaround intervals at Horizon to once every three years, which it expects to raise total oil sands mining and upgrading production capacity to approximately 597,000 barrels per day and add an average of 5,000 barrels per day of high-margin synthetic crude oil.

Reaching its net debt target is the other major signal from this report. With net debt hitting $8.67 billion against its target, the company triggered a policy of directing 100% of free cash flow to share repurchases, targeting roughly $800 million per month in buybacks during November and December 2026. That is the clearest near-term signal for shareholders after a production-constrained quarter.