Is $20 really on the table for Nike after a brutal earnings report?

A post by Spartanghostt6 on r/wallstreetbets asking whether Nike could fall to $20 became one of the more active stock discussions on the forum. It landed after Nike reported earnings per share in line with estimates while revenue came in missing expectations, with guidance for a high-single-digit revenue decline in FY2027.

The single number that crystallized the bearish case is a 26% drop in China sales. For a brand that has leaned heavily on that market for growth, the decline strips away one of the few remaining arguments for a near-term recovery. As the post puts it, a legendary brand and a deteriorating business trajectory can coexist, and the stock does not automatically bounce just because it looks historically cheap.

Management's restructuring plan is projected to deliver $2.5 billion in savings, but Reuters reported those savings are not expected to land until FY2031. That five-year runway asks investors to stay patient while revenue keeps contracting and competition intensifies, and the top comment on the thread recalled a prior confident prediction that the stock would never fall below $40.

The 13-year valuation low that some bulls have cited as their primary thesis gets picked apart in the thread, since guidance for accelerating revenue declines undercuts a valuation argument built on history. The gap between the restructuring payoff date and the current trajectory is what the market appears to be pricing in.