Chamath says Anthropic's IPO will clear below expectations, with $1T as the safety floor
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on September 26, 2026.
Chamath is putting a number on the AI regulatory overhang: $1 trillion is where he thinks the buyer gets paid, and he expects the deal to clear well below what the market assumes.
Ant will be a blockbuster IPO on every dimension. But the events of the past few weeks will weigh on the price. My bet is that the margin of safety for the IPO buyer is at +/- $1T. At 1T, it gives a good shot at a big return for the IPO buyer. Most every IPO seller is still https://t.co/ap7q9oiwA2 [Quoted @dnapway]: Chamath on regulatory risk impacting Anthropic's IPO: "It's probably going to clear at a much lower price than anybody thinks." "You have to throw everything in the kitchen sink into disclosures. The problem is that that will make what is an otherwise dense and impenetrable S-1 https://t.co/6pCbBF8Qvi
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Chamath Palihapitiya posted that Anthropic's IPO is shaping up to be a blockbuster on every dimension, but that recent events will weigh on the offering price. His public view is that the deal will clear at a much lower valuation than the market currently assumes.
He puts the margin of safety for an IPO buyer at $1 trillion, the level where he thinks buyers stand a real shot at a meaningful return. Sellers remain in a strong position there given where they got in.
He described the S-1 disclosure process as requiring everything but the kitchen sink, which he said would make an already dense and impenetrable filing even harder to parse. That burden, in his view, is a direct drag on where the deal prices.
The post quotes a separate clip in which Palihapitiya laid out the same thesis on regulatory risk. The convergence of both posts around the same valuation anchor suggests a considered view rather than an offhand remark.