Polymarket puts the U.S. Clarity Act's odds of passage at just 5%
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 10, 2026.
Traders are pricing the crypto market structure bill as all but dead at 5%, so anyone holding digital asset names on the promise of a U.S. regulatory framework is betting against the odds.
5% chance the U.S. Clarity Act is signed into law. https://t.co/mPB3Gq1G0i
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Polymarket's crowd of real-money traders has effectively written off the U.S. Clarity Act, pricing only a 5% chance the crypto market structure bill ever gets signed into law.
Anyone holding digital assets on the expectation that Washington delivers a clear regulatory framework is betting against the odds, because the market says those hopes are nearly off the table.
The Clarity Act was widely discussed as the legislation most likely to establish formal rules for how digital assets are classified and traded in the U.S.
Investors whose thesis depends on a U.S. regulatory catalyst face a meaningful gap between their expectations and what real-money traders are pricing.