Senator Warren says Trump's inflation has cost families $3,772 each

Citigroup just flipped from no change this year to a 25 basis point December hike, which puts another leg of pressure on bonds and rate-sensitive equities before year end.

CITIGROUP EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER A 25 BP RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER 2026 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF NO CHANGE THIS YEAR

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The Fed's unofficial messenger is flagging breadth: core goods at +0.25% was the biggest monthly gain in a year, which keeps another hike squarely on the table.

Unlike the upside surprise in August, where you could identify larger idiosyncratic increases, the miss on core CPI in September was more broadly based. Core goods printed at +0.25%, the largest monthly gain in a year, and shelter was +0.39%. Core services excluding housing was https://t.co/Xbgd7iTZGb

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A curve priced for three more hikes rather than cuts resets the math on long-duration bonds, REITs, utilities and anything else that borrows to grow.

JUST IN: Markets have repriced to expect three additional Fed rate hikes by end-2027.

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A 3.7% September inflation reading above expectations keeps another Fed hike live this year, and rate-sensitive names like REITs and utilities feel that first.

BREAKING: U.S. inflation surges to 3.7% in September, higher than economists expected.

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Rising yields squeeze the rate-sensitive corners of the market first: REITs, utilities and long-duration bond funds. With Fed officials still floating another hike this year, the pain trade is in anything priced for cuts.

Yields ripping higher: https://t.co/iJeceEmZij

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A 10-year above 5.30% resets the hurdle rate for everything: long-duration equity multiples, mortgage demand, and every dividend payer competing with risk-free income. Holders of rate-sensitive REITs and utilities feel this first.

BREAKING: U.S. 10-year yield surges back above 5.30% https://t.co/2lgzjs7FNF

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Gold selling off on a 3.7% inflation reading tells you the market is pricing higher-for-longer rates rather than an inflation hedge bid, and that squeezes every rate-sensitive trade from metals to REITs.

BREAKING: Gold prices fall toward $4,100/oz as US CPI inflation rises to 3.7%. https://t.co/KjzC3CuwWc

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A near 13 basis point jump in the two-year, the maturity most tied to Fed policy, says the bond market is pricing out cuts fast. Rate-sensitive names like REITs and small caps feel that first.

TWO-YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELDS HIT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE SEPT 29, LAST UP 12.72 BASIS POINTS AT 4.92%

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Bilello is calling for hikes rather than cuts, and that side of the debate is gaining traction as traders price additional tightening into 2027. Long-duration bonds, REITs and other rate-sensitive names are the first to feel it.

67. As in 67 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed's 2% target. Monetary policy remains far too easy. More rate hikes are coming. https://t.co/kfWOO8A5wr

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An energy-driven inflation reaccelerating to a five-month high keeps another Fed hike live this year, which is the opposite of what rate-sensitive stocks and Treasurys have been priced for.

JUST IN: U.S. CPI YoY hits highest since May as fuel costs rise

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An October hike back in play resets the math on every rate-sensitive trade, with core at 2.6% showing the heat runs broader than energy prices.

September’s CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7%, versus the 3.6% economists had forecast, with core CPI also topping estimates at 2.6%. The surprise, driven largely by rising gas and energy prices, could put an October Fed rate hike back on the table. Read more: https://t.co/L8VP2FUI0e

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