Prediction markets give Republicans just a 9% chance of holding Congress
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 24, 2026.
Prediction traders now give Republicans a 9% shot at holding Congress, so a split government in January is close to priced in while Trump floats military action against Cuba.
BREAKING: Trump says US will "take care" of Cuba after Iran at rally ahead of midterms 9% chance Republicans hold Congress. https://t.co/xIhNx6sOtL
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Prediction traders are pricing in a near-certain shift in congressional power, and at a rally ahead of the midterms Trump said the US would "take care" of Cuba after Iran.
Kalshi's market puts the odds of Republicans holding Congress at just 9%, making a split government in January the base case for traders. Consensus pricing this firm reprices sharply on any poll or news that challenges it.
A split Congress historically constrains major fiscal legislation, making sweeping tax changes or large spending packages harder to pass. That hits rate-sensitive sectors and any industry counting on deregulation or new appropriations for earnings growth.
Trump's Cuba remarks add geopolitical uncertainty that prediction markets have not yet built a dedicated contract around. Escalation talk this close to an election has historically raised volatility in defense-related assets and energy markets tied to Latin American supply routes.