Kalshi's KPOW Index Hits +4.8D With Democrats at 91% House Odds
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 25, 2026.
Real money now puts 91% odds on Democrats taking the House, a sweep scenario that would reshape tax, energy and health care policy expectations before the midterms are even called.
JUST IN: The Kalshi American Power Index (KPOW) is now at +4.8D 🟦 Senate control: Democrats – 63% chance 🟦 House control: Democrats – 91% chance 🟦 2028 Presidency: Democrats – 60% chance https://t.co/0xzY3fVjbF
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Kalshi's American Power Index, known as KPOW, is a real-money composite that aggregates prediction market probabilities across the major levers of U.S. federal power. A reading of +4.8D means the aggregate signal leans Democratic by that margin, drawn from live contracts where traders are putting actual capital behind their convictions.
A 91% probability on Democratic House control prices the sweep scenario as the base case, with Senate control at 63% and the 2028 presidential race at 60% for Democrats.
For investors, a unified Democratic government carries direct implications for tax policy, energy regulation, and health care legislation. Those sectors have historically repriced when the legislative path to major policy shifts becomes clear, and a 91% House probability makes that path look very short.
Keep an eye on the KPOW index as election day approaches, since any narrowing in the House probability is the first signal that the sweep trade is getting crowded or challenged by new information.