Kobeissi's "Stealth" Bear Market: S&P 500 Lost 8,500 to Energy Crisis
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on October 31, 2026.
Kobeissi puts a number on the energy crisis drag: an S&P 500 above 8,500 without it, with a "stealth" bear market running underneath the index into November.
Lastly, as part of our "stealth" bear market thesis, we noted broader uncertainty baked into markets. Without the global energy crisis, the S&P 500 would be above 8,500. We expect an eventful November ahead. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. https://t.co/f2oa5CWwMn
- Replies1
- Reposts0
- Likes12
Continue ReadingShow less
The Kobeissi Letter argues that the global energy crisis has quietly shaved away what would have been an S&P 500 above 8,500, placing the index inside what the firm calls a "stealth" bear market, where the headline level masks the damage running underneath.
A stealth bear market does not announce itself with a dramatic index collapse. Uncertainty gets priced in gradually, leaving investors who focus only on index levels to misread the underlying market entirely.
Sponsored
Posting on October 31, Kobeissi flagged this as the final point in a longer thread, suggesting the energy-crisis drag is one piece of a broader thesis the firm has been building out. November, in their view, is where that thesis gets tested.
With the index sitting well below the threshold Kobeissi cites as the energy-crisis-free baseline, investors have a concrete number to track as the energy situation evolves. Any meaningful relief on that front would be the first signal worth watching.